From the current point of view, the types of goods transported by rail are still mainly concentrated in the field of bulk commodities. They have not yet occupied a relatively strong position in the field of logistics. How to break through this restriction in the future and “enlarge†the application scenarios of railway transportation will be the next The problems that railway transport operators need to think about at the stage.
At the policy level, mention "transfer iron"
On June 27th, Premier Li Keqiang presided over the State Council executive meeting, deployed and adjusted the transportation structure to improve transportation efficiency, reduce the logistics cost of the real economy, and decided to better play the backbone role of railway transportation in bulk materials and long-distance transportation.
Railway transportation has become an important means of reducing costs and increasing efficiency. In the past two years, many national ministries and commissions have issued documents on logistics cost reduction and efficiency improvement, from guiding to gradual refinement. Among them, railway transportation has become the direction of policy push because of relatively low cost.
This year, with a series of more specific supporting measures, the effectiveness of the “transfer of iron†is also immediate. Recently, the data released by the National Railway Administration showed that the total number of national rail freight shipments reached 338 million tons in May, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate reached a new high this year.
However, from the current point of view, the types of goods transported by rail are still mainly concentrated in the field of bulk commodities. They have not yet occupied a relatively strong position in the field of logistics. How to break through this restriction in the future and “enlarge†the application scenarios of railway transportation will be The next stage of railway transport operators need to think about the issues.
"Promotion of iron" is unprecedented
Recently, the National General Assembly has further formulated the development "performance" goal for railway transportation: strive to achieve the proportion of industrial and mining enterprises with a bulk cargo volume of over 1.5 million tons per year and new railway parks to access special railway lines by 2020, and important coastal railways. The inbound rate is 80% and 60% respectively.
In addition to the State Council, since 2018, many ministries and commissions have successively expressed their views on promoting the transfer of iron. Some analysts believe that this year's "transfer of iron" policy has reached an unprecedented level, which is conducive to the further transfer of freight volume to the railway.
In addition to the Ministry of Transport will completely ban the passage of non-compliant vehicle transport vehicles from July 1st, the Ministry of Eco-Environment will also issue and implement the "Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defence War", which will increase the proportion of railway freight transportation as a key task. .
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment proposed that before the end of September 2018, the coal ports in the coastal ports of Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta were all converted to railways. At the end of 2019, the coastal ports of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta were all converted from railways to railways. Transporting the port.
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has formulated a plan to clarify the first layer of logic of “transfer ironâ€: controlling pollution. The Ministry believes that the proportion of road transport in the Chinese freight system is too high and is one of the main causes of air pollution. Data show that from 1980 to 2017, China's railway freight ratio fell from 20.4% to 7.7%, and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment's goal is to increase to 2020 by 10.7%.
Based on this logic, in fact, the work of collecting and diverting coal from the Bohai Sea port forbidden to receive road transport has been implemented for more than a year. In 2017, the former Ministry of Environmental Protection began to push the “transfer ironâ€. In April, Tianjin Port banned the transportation of coal to Hong Kong. At the end of September, the Bohai Sea port followed up.
The above news means that this regulation will be extended to Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta before the end of September this year.
In addition to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Ministry of Communications is also actively promoting the “transfer of ironâ€. In May of this year, the Ministry of Communications held a meeting on the Transport Structure Adjustment Working Group, proposing to deepen the structural reform of the transportation supply side as the main line and promote the “transfer of iron†for cargo transportation.
At the same time, the Ministry of Communications has increased its supervision of road transport. According to the notice issued jointly by the Ministry of Communications and the Ministry of Public Security and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, all non-compliant vehicle transport vehicles will be renewed before June 30, and the non-compliant vehicle transport vehicles will be completely banned from July 1, 2018. .
On the one hand, the policy has strengthened supervision and inspection of vehicle logistics enterprises, and on the other hand, it has increased the punishment for investigation and punishment of non-compliant vehicles.
Unlike the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the main goal of the Ministry of Transportation to adjust the transportation structure is to reduce logistics costs. A transportation industry analyst at Tianfeng Securities told 21st Century Business Herald that one of the reasons for the high logistics costs in China is the structure: a large number of goods that should be transported by rail and water are transported by road.
The data shows that in terms of passenger transportation, the proportion of railways, highways and waterways in the first five months of this year was 17.9%, 77.2% and 1.47% respectively. However, in terms of freight transportation, the railway ratio was only 8.6%, and the roads and waterways were 77.3% and 14 respectively. %. It can be seen that water transport and rail transport account for a much smaller proportion of freight transport than road transport.
Although the railway transportation volume in China has been improved in the past two years, the proportion is still relatively low. Compared with developed countries such as Europe and the United States, there is still a certain gap. In 2015, the US and EU rail freight turnover accounted for 33% and 18% respectively, while China's railway freight sales accounted for only 14%.
Railway freight volume climbs
Under the background of the policy to promote rail transportation, the volume of railway freight has increased significantly.
The data shows that in 2017, the national railway cargo delivery volume reached 2.918 billion tons, an increase of 10.1% over the previous year. It was not only the first time in six years, but also exceeded the target of 2.75 billion tons of annual transportation.
The recently announced May rail freight growth rate has once again hit a new high this year. It is reported that the total freight transportation target of China Railway in 2018 is 3.02 billion tons, and 53.91% of the annual plan has been completed in the first five months.
From the point of view of listed companies, the Daqin Railway (601006.SH) with the Daqin line segment repeatedly broke the historical record of daily traffic volume in the first half of 2018, and achieved 1.366 million tons/day in late May. The “Western Coal East Transport†made this Demand for the line continues to grow; while Tielong Logistics (600125.SH), which is mainly based on freight and port operations, directly benefits from “transfer ironâ€, and the proportion of railways and ports is increased. The capacity of the Shaying Line in 2017 reached 50.18 million tons. , a significant increase of 29.7% over the same period last year.
These listed companies have also improved their profitability while their business volume has been continuously broken. The data shows that the net profit of Daqin Railway in 2017 and the first quarter of 2018 reached 13.35 billion yuan and 4.097 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 86.24% and 29.61% respectively. The net profit of Tielong Logistics in the same period reached 331 million yuan and 129 million yuan respectively. It is worth mentioning that in 2017, the company's performance has achieved growth for the first time in many years.
Corresponding to the decline in road freight. "(The policy related to the transfer of iron) was generally implemented in the past few years, but recently, from the flow of trucks, the impact is indeed very large." The above analyst told the 21st Century Business Herald.
However, at present, railway transportation mainly bears the transportation of bulk commodities. From the traditional types of railway freight transportation, coal, metal ore, and steel have a proportion of more than 80%, and other types are oil, coke, and mineral construction materials. Therefore, after the “transfer of ironâ€, the southern region has less impact because the goods in the south are mainly manufactured goods.
From this perspective, the volume of freight carried by rail transport is not large enough. Taking the above data as an example, although the transportation volume of the railway itself has increased, the proportion of freight traffic in many regions is still very low. At present, the national level is about 8%, while in Beijing it is only 3%.
According to a research report by Tianfeng Securities, the proportion of railway freight transportation in the past has been decreasing year by year. In addition to market factors, the upper limit of the railway itself has not been opened, but at the moment, the release of railway freight capacity is relatively large. .
The research report pointed out that the structure of the railway itself is changing. As the high-speed railway becomes the main form of railway passenger transportation, the transportation volume of railway passengers is expected to remain stable. On the general speed line of passengers and cargoes, the passengers will squeeze the freight in the past. Will be alleviated.
On the other hand, the railway freight structure will also be adjusted. In the past, railway freight transport mainly served large-scale, and the slowdown in macroeconomic growth brought about a negative growth of railway freight traffic in the five years before 2017, but under the guidance of appropriate policies, These capacities are expected to serve more high value-added products.
At present, white goods, cold chain, special goods and express delivery are also trying to carry out railway transportation. However, it is said that the logistics cost has not been significantly reduced. The significance of the test is more on the environmental protection level.
Some people in the logistics industry pointed out to reporters that although railway transportation has the advantages of large scale and low cost, its shortcomings are obvious: the degree of flexibility is not high enough to meet the demand for common commodity circulation; in addition, the railway needs a lot of infrastructure construction. In order to enable the transportation capacity to meet the transportation needs of the cargo, this is also a major challenge for the current “transfer iron†acceleration.
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