In January, the domestic construction steel market price showed a significant upward trend. Affected by the transport capacity, the domestic steel transportation experienced a serious phenomenon of stagnation and port congestion. There were few northern resources, south and south, and the major market in the south remained low, and there was a shortage of specifications. In the absence of timely mitigation, prices in the south are still rising. In the northern region, prices have started to rise sharply with the reduction of market resources. At the same time, the increase in billet prices has caused the five steel mills in North China to increase their factory prices by 200 yuan, stimulating market prices. rise. The maintenance of the steel mills this month and the uninterrupted export of steel mills have reduced the domestic supply of resources as the main reason for the sharp rise in domestic construction steel prices.
In February, the tension in transportation has eased and the resources in the north will continue to fall southwards. However, it is difficult to get some relief from the shortage of resources in the southern market. At the same time, in the face of the Spring Festival, combined with past sales, it is possible to face some procurement peaks before the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, resources Will be increased and generally more concerned about the issue of export tax rebate cancellation policy, have an impact on market trends. Judging from the current market price, it is relatively high compared to the same period of last year, and the price increase is not large. At the same time, with the support of the cost of steel mills, there is little room for price drop. It is expected that the market price of construction steel in February will maintain a slight adjustment trend.
I. Domestic construction steel production
1. The increase of domestic construction steel production is not much smaller than the daily output of steel bars.
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2. Net exports of wire rods and rebars continue to show a growth trend
Since everyone in the market is sensitive to the news of the cancellation of export tax rebates, before the policy was formally introduced, most steel mills still managed to maintain exports, resulting in the continued growth of exports of steel bars and wire rods in December. Domestic steel products are expected in January. Exports will be no less than December. See Figure 1-2 below:
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3. New increase in domestic construction steel resources
Specific conditions are shown in Figure 1-3
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Third, the domestic construction steel market prices rose sharply in January
The changes in the trend of 6.5mm high-line and 25mm rebar in major markets are shown in Figures 1-4 and 1-5:
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The adjustment of the construction steel market in April and February was not significant
Since the overall resources in the domestic market are still relatively small, domestic steel mills basically increase their export intensity and have little supply of domestic resources. In addition to the traditional Spring Festival in February, the post-holiday period has basically reached the end of the month, facing steel mills. Due to the increase in billet prices and the rise in steel billet prices, the rise in billet prices for steel mills has made it difficult to lower the ex-factory price of steel mills. At the same time, the demand for the warming of the weather has been magnified. It is expected that the construction steel market will have slight adjustments in February and the adjustment will not be effective. Big.
(a) The construction steel stocks in various places are at a low level
The inventory of domestic construction steel stocks showed a slight downward trend, taking Beijing as an example (see Figure 1-6). During the Spring Festival of the month, the inventory will show an upward trend, but the total amount will not be too large. The increase in post-holiday inventory will exert some pressure on the market, and market prices will not rule out a drop.
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(II) Steel mill policies play a supporting role in the market
On January 29th, the five plants in North China (Shougang, Tangshan, Xuanhua, Chenggang and Tiangang) Price: In February, the price of construction steel to Beijing was 230 yuan for the high-line, and 3230 yuan for the φ6.5mm high-line; Large rebar up 200 yuan, hrb335φ16-25mm rebar is 3200 yuan; the proportion of three-level rebar control of each plant in 40%, the price is locked in the same month. The introduction of pricing policies in the North China Five Steel Factory continued to slightly increase the market price. The increase in the price of construction steel in Beijing has also contributed to the rise in the Shanghai market price. At the same time, steel mills continue to increase exports, so that the supply of domestic resources is still small. In the later period, the market price of construction steel will not fall under the support of the high cost of steel mills. At the same time, the recent rise in the billet price has made it difficult to reduce the factory prices.
(C) Affected by the "Traditional Spring Festival", the demand for construction markets in various places is the lowest
As the traditional Spring Festival is faced in February, the impact of the holiday around the 20-day period will shorten the sales time, and the market demand will also be the most obscure period. The pre-holiday construction site has basically stopped working. There is little demand from end-users. The market demand is only a few middlemen. After the holidays have basically reached the end of the month, many construction sites have not yet started, and the market transaction is difficult to improve. Demand for the market in February is not optimistic about the rise in market prices.
(IV) The supply of domestic steel production is not large
Due to the news that the export tax rebates will be cancelled in the market, it will have a greater impact on the market. At present, most steel mills continue to step up exports before the introduction of this policy. At the same time, the maintenance of a large number of steel mills in winter will affect the reduction in the supply of market resources. It is understood that the output of the steel mills maintained at the level of January in February, and the shipments of steel mills in February will not exceed the level in January. Therefore, the shipments of steel mills in February were normal, and the increase in market resources was modest, supporting the market trend.
Based on the above analysis of various factors, under the condition that resource supply and market demand are basically maintained, the construction steel market will not change much in February, and the market price will be affected by the increase or decrease in the arrival of resources during the Spring Festival. A certain decline, but will not affect the overall market trend, in February the domestic construction steel market prices as a whole will be an upward trend than in January. (thunderstorm)
In February, the tension in transportation has eased and the resources in the north will continue to fall southwards. However, it is difficult to get some relief from the shortage of resources in the southern market. At the same time, in the face of the Spring Festival, combined with past sales, it is possible to face some procurement peaks before the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, resources Will be increased and generally more concerned about the issue of export tax rebate cancellation policy, have an impact on market trends. Judging from the current market price, it is relatively high compared to the same period of last year, and the price increase is not large. At the same time, with the support of the cost of steel mills, there is little room for price drop. It is expected that the market price of construction steel in February will maintain a slight adjustment trend.
I. Domestic construction steel production
1. The increase of domestic construction steel production is not much smaller than the daily output of steel bars.
2. Net exports of wire rods and rebars continue to show a growth trend
Since everyone in the market is sensitive to the news of the cancellation of export tax rebates, before the policy was formally introduced, most steel mills still managed to maintain exports, resulting in the continued growth of exports of steel bars and wire rods in December. Domestic steel products are expected in January. Exports will be no less than December. See Figure 1-2 below:
3. New increase in domestic construction steel resources
Specific conditions are shown in Figure 1-3
Third, the domestic construction steel market prices rose sharply in January
The changes in the trend of 6.5mm high-line and 25mm rebar in major markets are shown in Figures 1-4 and 1-5:
The adjustment of the construction steel market in April and February was not significant
Since the overall resources in the domestic market are still relatively small, domestic steel mills basically increase their export intensity and have little supply of domestic resources. In addition to the traditional Spring Festival in February, the post-holiday period has basically reached the end of the month, facing steel mills. Due to the increase in billet prices and the rise in steel billet prices, the rise in billet prices for steel mills has made it difficult to lower the ex-factory price of steel mills. At the same time, the demand for the warming of the weather has been magnified. It is expected that the construction steel market will have slight adjustments in February and the adjustment will not be effective. Big.
(a) The construction steel stocks in various places are at a low level
The inventory of domestic construction steel stocks showed a slight downward trend, taking Beijing as an example (see Figure 1-6). During the Spring Festival of the month, the inventory will show an upward trend, but the total amount will not be too large. The increase in post-holiday inventory will exert some pressure on the market, and market prices will not rule out a drop.
(II) Steel mill policies play a supporting role in the market
On January 29th, the five plants in North China (Shougang, Tangshan, Xuanhua, Chenggang and Tiangang) Price: In February, the price of construction steel to Beijing was 230 yuan for the high-line, and 3230 yuan for the φ6.5mm high-line; Large rebar up 200 yuan, hrb335φ16-25mm rebar is 3200 yuan; the proportion of three-level rebar control of each plant in 40%, the price is locked in the same month. The introduction of pricing policies in the North China Five Steel Factory continued to slightly increase the market price. The increase in the price of construction steel in Beijing has also contributed to the rise in the Shanghai market price. At the same time, steel mills continue to increase exports, so that the supply of domestic resources is still small. In the later period, the market price of construction steel will not fall under the support of the high cost of steel mills. At the same time, the recent rise in the billet price has made it difficult to reduce the factory prices.
(C) Affected by the "Traditional Spring Festival", the demand for construction markets in various places is the lowest
As the traditional Spring Festival is faced in February, the impact of the holiday around the 20-day period will shorten the sales time, and the market demand will also be the most obscure period. The pre-holiday construction site has basically stopped working. There is little demand from end-users. The market demand is only a few middlemen. After the holidays have basically reached the end of the month, many construction sites have not yet started, and the market transaction is difficult to improve. Demand for the market in February is not optimistic about the rise in market prices.
(IV) The supply of domestic steel production is not large
Due to the news that the export tax rebates will be cancelled in the market, it will have a greater impact on the market. At present, most steel mills continue to step up exports before the introduction of this policy. At the same time, the maintenance of a large number of steel mills in winter will affect the reduction in the supply of market resources. It is understood that the output of the steel mills maintained at the level of January in February, and the shipments of steel mills in February will not exceed the level in January. Therefore, the shipments of steel mills in February were normal, and the increase in market resources was modest, supporting the market trend.
Based on the above analysis of various factors, under the condition that resource supply and market demand are basically maintained, the construction steel market will not change much in February, and the market price will be affected by the increase or decrease in the arrival of resources during the Spring Festival. A certain decline, but will not affect the overall market trend, in February the domestic construction steel market prices as a whole will be an upward trend than in January. (thunderstorm)
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