Abstract Lead: The Chinese economy, which has suffered from the pains of transformation and tremendous pressure, is still full of opportunities during the bottoming and re-starting shifts. These opportunities will allow the country to start a new 30 years through a systematic reform and innovation. When there are more than one person, this
Lead: The Chinese economy, which has suffered from the pains of transformation and tremendous pressure, is still full of opportunities during the bottoming and re-starting shifts. These opportunities will allow the country to start a new 30 years through a systematic reform and innovation. one
When there are many people, this street looks like a young river. On both sides of the bank are three-story buildings that have been repainted in blue-gray. The passion is surging and the flow is endless.
It is only 50 meters long and only one year after it officially opened. The government gave it a very direct name - "Zhongguancun (15.31, -0.86, -5.32%) Venture Street." But if you only look at the name of the street, it is more like a street in a cafe. Ask them to call them "business cafes" or "business incubators."
This is the day at the end of May 2015. The 3W coffee shop founded by Xu is full of people, and the street outside is the same. There are projects and ideas everywhere, investors and tourists everywhere. On May 7, the arrival of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang turned this place into a new landmark. Li Keqiang’s worried economic downturn has become the enthusiasm and passion of entrepreneurs here, like a big net to cover outsiders.
This scene is very easy to think of the "sea tide" of the early 1990s. At that time, Deng Xiaoping returned from the South, and the whole of China was inspired by the vocabulary of freedom, market and development. People left the old system one after another. China began the first entrepreneurial tide at the beginning of reform and opening up. The data released by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security now sounds incredible: in 1992, more than 120,000 people resigned from the sea, and more than 10 million people did not resign but joined the business sea (dismissal, part-time).
At this moment, the scene of deja vu is repeated. Words such as market, reform, and entrepreneurship are repeatedly mentioned by the top leadership of the country, and even the economic reality is so similar. Zhongguancun Venture Street and the world outside it are showing two very different countries: a dizzying entrepreneurial craze and an economic situation that is worrying the government.
On May 27th, in the office building of the National Development and Reform Commission at No. 38 Yuetan South Street, a new round of investment projects planned by officials of the Investment Department has been completed. According to the plan, the National Development and Reform Commission will launch four major investment projects including urban rail transit, modern logistics, enhanced manufacturing competitiveness and strategic emerging industries in the near future.
The continuous downward pressure on the economy has turned China's macro policy tools into investment again. But they found that the immediate investment-driven model, the current effect has been hit a lot of discounts. An official from the Investment Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission commented that the current economic situation says that the downward pressure on the economy is still relatively large, the willingness to invest in enterprises is not high, and local growth is weak. The engineering investment packages in seven major areas, such as transportation and oil and gas pipeline networks, which were launched at the end of 2014, have been slow, some projects have been difficult to land, and the effect of investment on steady growth has not been well manifested.
What made the National Development and Reform Commission even more unexpected was that the local government had no enthusiasm in the 2009 4 trillion investment feast. According to an official, “the local government in 2009 was running a yellow light project, but now the green light is on, but no one is moving.†This scene is full of metaphors, and the Chinese economy that roared forward The EMU is slowing down the shift, but before the shift is completed, many reform tasks in this country still require the economy to maintain a certain speed. It seems that this slowdown has brought a lot of pressure to the country that has been accustomed to high-speed growth for more than a decade. The investment department official said, "There is no shortage of investment recently, but if the local government's subjective initiative cannot be mobilized, there will be trouble."
At least in the past decade or so, when the Chinese economy has risen and fallen, the Investment Division of the National Development and Reform Commission has become the busiest sector. They are the government agencies that best fit the investment-driven traditional Chinese economic growth model. On May 25th, they announced 1,043 investment projects to be promoted in the form of PPP (public-private partnership), with a total investment scale of 1.97 trillion yuan.
Like many other economic models, PPP also has the taste of exotic products. Since the end of 2013, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of China has determined that “allowing social capital to participate in urban infrastructure investment and operations through franchising and other means†has begun to heat up rapidly in government departments and markets. Wu Yaping, director of the Investment and Investment Policy Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the PPP will re-engineer China's investment and financing system if it can proceed smoothly.
You can understand the investment and financing system as a carving knife for the Chinese economy. Although the reform and opening up has radically transformed the country since 1979, it was not until 2004 that China’s investment and financing system made its first substantial change. The "Decision of the State Council on Investment System Reform" issued in that year will take place in the country's investment behavior, divided into government investment and enterprise investment, and will be managed by three administrative means of filing, approval and approval. Prior to this, almost all investment behaviors in China required government approval.
But until now, the goal of “implementing corporate investment autonomy†mentioned in the document issued 10 years ago has not yet been fully realized. With the introduction of the PPP model, an unfinished reform started again.
This will be a very difficult and tricky system engineering. On February 8, 2014, Chinese President Xi Jinping said in an exclusive interview with the Russian media that China's reform "has entered the deep water area. It can be said that the easy and happy reforms have been completed, and the delicious meat has been eaten. The hard ones are hard bones... the reform is hard to move forward."
The general public will feel more and more deeply about the sweetness and pain that China's ongoing transformation and reform will bring to them. Those laid-off workers who are unable to do so, the government officials who sell the land, and the adventurers whose future are uncertain will all feel the dangers and opportunities brought about by the thrilling savings that the country is accumulating.
The comprehensive reform that Xi Jinping is advancing is a thrilling leap that the country must experience. In April 2015, at a forum at Tsinghua University, Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei reminded that the current time is very crucial. We only have to do a lot of things in 10 years to get the total factor productivity up and out of the stagnation trap. The tasks set by the Third Plenary Session and the Fourth Plenary Session are completed, and the possibility of getting out of the middle income trap is high.
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On May 13, 2015, the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data such as investment, consumption, and industrial growth in April. The growth rate of major engine investment in China's economic growth over the past few years has declined. The cumulative growth rate is only 12.7%, a record of 15 New low in the year. Among them, the growth rate of manufacturing and real estate investment in a single month was only 8.9% and 0.5%.
Some of the facts that are happening are also verifying the difficulties that traditional Chinese industries are experiencing. At 8:30 pm on March 27, 2015, the production unit of blast furnace, converter and rod and wire rod in the smelting area of ​​Sichuan State Steel Pan-Steel Group Co., Ltd. was officially shut down. The steel mill, which was built in 1958 and instructed by Mao Zedong, has withdrawn from the stage, and 16,000 state-owned enterprises have begun to be laid off. On May 20, 2015, the three main business lines of Shanxi Guoqi Taigang Group Linyi Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. were all shut down. The 57-year-old provincial state-owned enterprise officially disappeared, and more than 10,000 state-owned enterprise employees were laid off. In the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the two represent the manufacturing level of China, and many traditional manufacturing companies have disappeared in the last two years.
Local governments and financing platform companies are also beginning to face another vacant space. Chen Jingdong, chairman of the construction investment company of Fuyang City, Hubei Province, said that the land auction is more and more difficult, and many projects are urgently waiting for funds. It is indeed difficult.
These changes mean that the transformational pains of this country are coming, the traditional model of development is drastically reduced, and some old and backward factories and production models are beginning to withdraw. The country urgently needs to find a new key, just like the series of chain reactions triggered by the southern tour in 1978, opening the chain of institutions.
Soon, the news of stabilizing people's hearts came. The People’s Daily, published on May 25, rarely used the headlines and the second edition of the second edition to pay attention to the Chinese economic situation. The mysterious "authoritative person" in the form of an exclusive interview in the article interprets the key issues of the Chinese economy from five aspects.
The mysterious person said that the current economic operation is expected, still in a reasonable range. China's economic fundamentals are good, with great resilience and obvious institutional superiority. As long as you grasp it well, you will not be able to make big problems. The people can fully understand the current growth situation, which is the biggest strength of China's economic development. It is necessary to attach great importance to coping with downward pressure, but it is not necessary to panic. When we get out of the predicament and turn crisis into opportunity, we must rely on innovation in the end and adjust the structure by turning the way.
It is not really important who the "mysterious person" is. The outside world has clearly understood the Chinese government's decision-making level on the current Chinese economy.
Two days later, on May 27th, Chinese President Xi Jinping held the most responsible comrades' symposium of the party committees of the seven provinces and cities in East China, the most economically active in China. Xi Jinping said that at present and in the future, the world economic environment is still relatively complicated, opportunities and challenges are intertwined, time and potential are generally beneficial to me, and important strategic opportunities for China's development still exist. He demanded that the promotion of economic growth will be driven mainly by investment and export promotion, relying on consumption, investment, and export coordination.
At this meeting, key words such as maintaining economic growth, transforming the mode of economic development, adjusting and optimizing the industrial structure, and reforming the institutional mechanism appeared in the deployment of Xi Jinping during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. He said that around the institutional and institutional obstacles to solve the outstanding problems of economic and social development, comprehensively deepen the reform, so that the market plays a decisive role in resource allocation and better play the role of the government, forming a new system of opening up to the outside world, and accelerating the cultivation of new advantages in international competition.
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Zhang Tianyu jumped into the big river of Zhongguancun Venture Street. He and three other co-founders came here in April 2015 to enter the 3W cafe and launch a startup project that sells “star time†business. They named the company “Star Catâ€. There are almost a few startups on this street that are full of bizarre ideas every day. The speed of their life and death is unpredictable.
But Zhang Tianyu is willing to take an adventure. Half a year ago, his identity was also the director of the Southwest Region of China Railways International Tendering Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of the China Railway Materials Corporation. He was engaged in traditional steel trade. He was responsible for getting steel from the steel company and then selling it to construction sites. . The acceleration of the traditional steel traders, as well as the internal rigid mechanism of the central enterprises, let him bid farewell to a fairly good iron rice bowl.
He could not evaluate the grand institutional arrangements that the country was making, but he deeply felt that the Internet and the dazzling business model it spawned were profoundly changing people's lives. This gave him a chance to try his hand.
Xu Dan, the founder of 3W Cafe and Lagou.com, feels that the emergence of the current entrepreneurial tide is related to the government's decision-making. The government feels that the driving force of China's traditional economic growth has encountered obstacles. Therefore, China's economic structure needs to be transformed and upgraded, which requires sufficient innovation and sufficient service industry. At this time, the penetration of Internet tools into every industry has further led to the emergence of entrepreneurial tides.
Like most entrepreneurs, the typical post-80s entrepreneur is not good at evaluating the macroeconomic pressure China is experiencing. He just feels that entrepreneurship can definitely change China's economic structure because it promotes a country's innovation. . "At present, China's entrepreneurial tide is still a fire of the stars, but when it becomes a prairie, it will definitely change China's economic structure."
Only 50 meters long Zhongguancun Venture Street has countless adventurers with entrepreneurial dreams every day. They all know that in theory, less than 1% of them can live and grow up, and they are full of cruel challenges. They are still Willing to give it a try. Their few expectations for the government are not to bother them.
Xu said, "The government still loosens these entrepreneurial young people. What I am most worried about now is that bad money drives out good money. Because the policy is now set, the public is entrepreneurial and innovative, so many governments will provide some entrepreneurs. Financial support. But this kind of support is often extensive. This will lead to companies that lack the ability to innovate, but will have a relationship with the government, which in turn affects our business. In this case, those who do poorly will put Well done expelled. This is my current worry."
The tremendous changes that these young adventurers have brought to China are fermenting. If you take the high-speed rail or drive along the Beijing-Shanghai Expressway to the south, you will find that the sight you see is no longer the same as in previous years.
On the skyline between the city and the countryside, dense steel scaffolding is becoming scarce; the excavator that is tumbling in the wilderness is also reduced; in a section of Hebei and Tianjin, the factory is towering above the chimney. The brown smoke is disappearing. The dense high-speed rail line and the interwoven highway network are the initiators that China has developed rapidly. Now, just now, on this huge transportation network, more and more vans and cabinets have appeared. It was painted on the logo of the emerging giant giant company such as SF [microblogging] and Jingdong. They indicate that the passwords for people to extract wealth in this country are changing.
On May 26, the data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed that in the first four months of this year, the national express delivery volume was 5.20 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 42.3%, and the growth rate was 0.6 percentage points higher than the first quarter. This is already since March 2011, e-commerce and express logistics have maintained a growth rate of more than 40% for 49 consecutive months. In 2014, the volume of China's logistics express delivery exceeded 14 billion, which is 3 billion more than the United States.
Sheng Laiyun, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics of China, praised this as a welcome change and the realization of the structural adjustment of the Chinese economy. The emergence of this new economic growth point not only stimulates economic growth, but also helps economic growth to achieve a smooth shift. This trend will have far-reaching and lasting impact on China's economic growth, employment and all aspects.
Liang Chunxiao, who has just stepped down as the vice president of Alibaba [microblogging] group, called the Internet economy a new economic engine under the new normal. He said, "Our original economic growth momentum is insufficient, and this is a new factor; this is not only the growth of the Chinese economy, but the driving force for transformation, and the adjustment of the entire economic structure."
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Chinese policymakers know that in addition to the spontaneous economic adjustments that the Internet has spawned, a series of in-depth reforms are needed to promote the transformation of the traditional model that has lasted for nearly 30 years.
China is no stranger to reform. It has tasted the economic growth and the sweetness of social development brought about by the thrilling reforms 30 years ago, but it also needs some risk contradictions caused by some reforms. At the forum of Tsinghua University, Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei warned China that in the next five or ten years, the possibility of slipping into the middle income trap is very high. Five open.
The middle-income trap that Lou Jiwei warned was a trap for the country’s economic stagnation. His judgment is based on the fact that China has ushered in the turning point of the demographic dividend since 2007. China's economic take-off has relied on the labor cost advantage of nearly 20 years to begin to recede; high-speed economic growth has brought some distorted economic and social phenomena that have not been corrected. The problems of large debt risk and high economic leverage require a long time to solve; at this time, the three factors of economic shift, structural adjustment, and policy digestion have begun to appear painfully.
A British economist who asked for an anonymous long-term observation and study of the Chinese economy said, "No one will doubt the questions raised by Lou Jiwei, and the risks may indeed appear at any time." But he still has confidence in China. He learned from some of the top officials he met in Beijing that the Chinese decision-making level has begun to start a very targeted layout. For example, he said that China has begun to deploy robots (103.500, 4.60, 4.65%) strategies for demographic dividends and manufacturing advantages. He commented that this is a very wise choice.
In early May, Standard Chartered Bank [Weibo] released a survey report on the transformation of manufacturing companies in the Pearl River Delta. This report sent questionnaires to more than 200 local business owners to try to understand their response to rising labor costs and cost competitiveness. Of the policy. The results show that less than 20% of the bosses will consider moving the factory to cheaper labor in Vietnam, India and other places, while the remaining 80% choose to purchase smarter industrial robots to replace the rising labor force.
The results of the investigation by Standard Chartered Bank confirm the relevant arrangements in the “Made in China 2025†issued by the State Council of China on May 8. This is the first program of China's implementation of the first decade of the strategy of manufacturing a strong country. At the beginning, some officials and experts are happy to compare it with the German manufacturing 4.0.
The aforementioned British economist currently works for a US investment company that manages 1.5 trillion assets. Although the Chinese economy is under dangerous downward pressure, he still maintains great interest in investing in China. They are very interested in China's real estate, finance, and manufacturing industries. He said, "Although China's official GDP is already around 7%, it is still one of the countries with the greatest potential growth, and its economic transformation has already begun."
He predicted that China's transitional experience will require a five-year or longer economic downturn. However, he acknowledged that the fundamental decision on how far China's transformation can go is whether the comprehensive reform and deployment made by the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee can be put in place. He hopes that all the beautiful ideas of China can be realized.
But reform requires conditions and opportunities. Wu Yaping, director of the Investment and Investment Policy Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that reform requires economic development as a support. Therefore, China still needs to rely on a large amount of investment, and these investments are those that focus on the long-term investment and cannot be invalid duplicate investments. At the same time, we must seize the opportunity to advance reform. There are a lot of reform opportunities we have missed before.
Lin Yifu, honorary dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University and former vice president of the World Bank [microblogging], is one of the economists who are optimistic about the Chinese economy. He said that there is huge room for technological innovation and industrial upgrading, and both are inseparable from investment. There are still a lot of debts in China's infrastructure construction.
Although there are many high-speed rail, highway and airport constructions between cities, the construction of rail transit, subways and roads in the city is seriously inadequate, and the underground pipeline network is obviously aging. Many cities are plagued by traffic jams and urban shackles. The opportunities for effective investment are numerous and the biggest difference between China as a developing country and a developed country.
Such a judgment allowed Lin Yifu to insist that the Chinese economy still has an annual growth potential of 8% by 2028. Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, is not as optimistic as Lin Yifu. He predicts that the average growth rate of GDP will be around 6.2% in the next decade. After 2020, GDP growth will be less than 6%, but China is big. The probability of a scale economy crisis is also small. He identified 2015 and 2016 as the bottoming out of the rapid growth of the Chinese economy.
It seems that despite the time constraints, the Chinese economy, which is suffering from the pains of transformation and tremendous pressure, is still full of opportunities during the bottoming and re-starting shifts. These opportunities will allow the country to start a new 30 years through a systematic reform and innovation.
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