Correctly predict the overall situation of China's machine tool industry

Recently, the state has launched 4 trillion yuan to boost domestic demand. We made a rough survey to the relevant government departments. The first batch of the National Development and Reform Commission and the second batch of 150 projects have a total investment of more than 58 billion yuan in more than 150 projects, including 29 enterprises in our machine tool industry. This is all incomplete statistics). If you invest 12.3 billion yuan, the state must stipulate that 80% is to stimulate domestic demand, buy domestic equipment, 80% of the technology investment transformation should be used in China, and our CNC system will have a market. 150 projects, 580 billion related industries are also our market, but this market is mainly in the middle and high-end, and the middle and low-end is not without. It is very clear to everyone that the data of Shenyang Machine Tool Group represents an iconic demand structure in the current market. So it is concluded that the market situation facing our industry has three words: the market has the upper and lower, the upper is the high-grade or medium-grade, the lower is the low-end things; our user industry has changed, so our total industry There will be additions and subtractions; to increase the medium and high-end products, we must reduce those low-end products, so our company will also have a retreat.

At present, there are more than 4,000 companies in our machine tool industry, which are divided into three categories. The good is also a small number. After driving the progress of the whole industry and developing forward, their tasks in 2008 have not only declined, but the tasks in 2009 have also been almost the same; There are still some enterprises that are difficult to operate, and there are not many such enterprises; most enterprises are struggling, do everything possible to tide over the difficulties, change to special, fine and special, and find new ways to develop.

The nine major areas are doing revitalization planning. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed to focus on 11 areas of development, namely, railway, aerospace, textile, instrumentation and other 11 areas as key support areas of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. So to see the bright side, to see the future, to see the side that continues to consolidate our development momentum, of course, we must also see the impact of the crisis, the difficulties we bring, or the problems. Think more and better.

But now there are two kinds of estimates: one is that the measures taken by the country at the end of 2009 will be in place, and new developments will emerge after the second half of the year. The 4 trillion yuan measures taken by the countries I have learned so far have indeed been approved for only 20 days, but there are still many problems to be seen. The central government thinks that it is relatively implemented. It is more realistic to implement 100 billion yuan at the end of 2008. The second level is local. The total amount of local investment is 18 trillion yuan. Although there is a false side, it will not be less than 10 trillion yuan. If this is the case, the local project plus the central project will greatly increase the demand for domestic demand.

Another estimate is that the end of 2009 will be able to get out of the trough. Most of these estimates are based on some international estimates. I don't think this is necessarily accurate. So if it is reversed in mid-2009, we should be fully prepared for this paragraph. If we are at the end of 2009, we are better equipped to be fully prepared. It is better to be prepared earlier, not to relax, not to give up, especially to abandon development goals. In the face of the financial crisis, we must have a sense of crisis and confidence to solve the problems that arise.

Therefore, the forecast for 2009 is also two views. If it starts to rise after June, we think it can be 15% higher than 2008. If it can be alleviated by the end of 2009, we have to maintain a flat, which is also the two for 2009. Forecast.

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