Among the 35 cities monitored by China Index Research Institute, the transaction volume of 26 cities decreased year-on-year, and the transaction volume of over 70% of the city's property market fell year-on-year. The turnover of 7 cities fell by more than 50%, of which Changsha had the largest year-on-year decline, reaching 76.43%. . Among the key cities, Shenzhen saw the largest decline, reaching 61.22%.
According to statistics from the Beijing Real Estate Transaction Management Network, in October (as of the 30th), the total number of second-hand residential nets in Beijing was 8,750 sets. Compared with the same period of last year, the transaction volume fell by nearly 50%.
On October 28, the Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission lowered the agency charges for second-hand housing transactions for the first time in 14 years. From August 31, the upper limit of the second-hand housing agency fee is adjusted from the current 2.5% to 2%. At the same time, the three fees for the transfer of the agent, the agency loan, and the house check-in will be capped at 1,000 yuan. For this new policy, some real estate industry insiders and Zhongyuan Real Estate, Chain Real Estate and other intermediary companies agree that despite the rapid rise in housing prices, the second-hand housing transaction agency fee is 50,000 or 60,000 yuan, but the agency fee standard The reduction is still unable to change the current situation of the shrinking volume of second-hand housing in Beijing.
According to the latest data from Hanyu Real Estate Market Research Department, the transaction volume of second-hand housing sales in Shanghai fell by 24% in October, and the rental transaction volume also dropped by about 20%. Fu Wei, manager of Hanyu Real Estate Market Research Department, said that the volume of second-hand housing in the city is likely to fall below 10,000 in October, which will be the worst October since 2008.
Not only the volume of second-hand residential property fell sharply, but also the transaction of first-hand residential houses ended in disappointment. Some large-scale real estate developers chose to promote vigorously because they couldn’t help themselves. In general, the emergence of the inflection point is a process, first the sales shrink, then the price drops significantly, and finally the investment changes. Now, the volume of transactions has shrunk dramatically, and the promotion of house prices has also been abandoned by small and medium-sized housing companies.
Xue Jianxiong, an analyst at Zhongfangxin, believes that the reason for these large developers to take the lead in price cuts is not to win "life-saving money", but that they have no luck with policies and markets and tend to seize market opportunities. In particular, China Overseas Real Estate has experienced the downturn in the property market during the financial crisis in Hong Kong and is more aware of the importance of taking the lead in price cuts.
Luo Mohui, CEO of Jinmo.com, said that China's real estate is being affected by restrictions on purchase orders and loan tightening. It is likely to have a turning point in the Spring Festival of 2012, which will affect 50 upstream and downstream industries such as steel, hardware and building materials.
Yang Nie, chairman of Xinjian Hardware, said that there are not many effective demand for the property market. Some people are limited in loans. Some people are limited to purchase. There are not many people who are really qualified to buy and can obtain some loans from banks. There are still some waiting to see.
On the occasion of the quiet arrival in winter, the market predicts that the transaction volume of the property market will continue to shrink in the fourth quarter of 2011, the price will stop rising, and the price reduction project will continue to increase significantly. The real price inflection point is gradually approaching. As the Chinese government continues to maintain control policies on real estate, the range of real estate prices that have declined in the country continues to expand.
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in October this year, compared with the previous month, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, there were 34 cities with falling prices and 20 cities with flat prices. In terms of second-hand housing, compared with September, the number of cities with a decrease in the month-on-month price increased by 13.
In addition to government regulation, the huge stock of land reserves in the real estate market also affects price changes in the coming years. China’s Ministry of Land and Resources disclosed the unopened land use data for the first time this month. It is reported that as of October 2011, the country's undeveloped real estate land is about 213,000 hectares, including 165,000 hectares of residential land; 455,000 hectares of uncompleted real estate land, including 355,000 hectares of residential land. The continued unfinished land continued to pressure the real estate price, which will also lead to further adjustments in real estate prices.
Whether it is the market, the government or the researchers, it seems to have jointly expressed the voice of the housing price regulation is not yet in place. As for the worst case, Liu Mingkang, the former chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, once said at a financial summit held in Beijing, assuming that the worst situation occurred, that is, house prices fell by 50%, and bank credit will still not be problematic.
For the price decline in the real estate market, the Institute of Economic Research of Renmin University of China released the report “China's Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast 2011~2012†on Saturday, and the overall adjustment of the real estate market has not yet appeared. The report believes that the current real estate market is in the stage of accelerated deterioration, local adjustment and internal adjustment of the real estate market is still the mainstream of the four quarters of 2012.
However, the local government's ability to withstand falling house prices may be lower than the CBRC's estimate. Because both local finance and local government financing platforms are closely linked to land sales revenue and future earnings from real estate development.
Liu Yuanchun, deputy dean of the School of Economics of Renmin University of China, pointed out in the above report that the real estate market will not have a “collapsed decline†because local finance and macroeconomics cannot tolerate a 25% fall in real estate prices, thus predicting China next year. The real estate market price will not fall by more than 25%.
Affected by falling real estate prices, China's steel industry has already approached the harsh winter earlier than real estate. Steel is connected to real estate construction steel, and is connected to housing decoration and home appliance purchase. Automobiles, motorcycles, fuels and spare parts, machinery and equipment, household appliances and electronic products, hardware, furniture and interior decoration materials are all subject to real estate. Regulation affects the decline in demand.
Against the backdrop of falling steel prices, Baosteel took the lead in introducing the December price policy. All steel prices have been cut sharply, ranging from 150 yuan to 400 yuan per ton. Luo Mohui, CEO of Jinmo.com, believes that before the introduction of better macroeconomic regulation and control policies, the continued expansion of steel production will inevitably lead to oversupply, which will constitute another negative factor for the sluggish steel market at this stage.
Dc Motor Fan,Smart Ceiling Fans,Ac Motor Fan Ceiling,Dc And Ac Motor Ceiling Fan
Jiangmen MagicPower Electrical Appliances Co.,Ltd. , https://www.mpceilingfan.com