Many experts expect the credit increase in April may exceed 700 billion yuan

April is nearing completion, and many experts expect credit or over 700 billion in the day.   Credit data for April will be released in mid-May. In an interview with the reporter of "Daily Economic News" yesterday, several financial experts believe that the credit increase in April may exceed 700 billion yuan. Some bank analysts believe that the credit increase in April is not much different from the monthly average in the first quarter. The credit increase in the first quarter divided by 3 is close to the real data. However, Guo Tianyong, director of the China Banking Research Center of the Central University of Finance and Economics, stressed that the data under the sound monetary policy should be between 500 billion and 600 billion. The 700 billion credit increase is the chief economist of the Industrial Bank, Lu Zhengwei, told the reporter of "Daily Economic News": "The credit increase of 700 billion is normal. From the actual situation in the past three years, the second quarter credit increase. The amount is slightly higher than the first quarter, and the first month of each quarter is higher than the other two months. It is predicted that from the second quarter, the new RMB loans will be normal, so the slightly higher in April will not affect the second quarter. The currency situation.” Lu’s political commissar pointed out that reform requires cost and regulation also requires cost. At present, large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises are in a state of lack of money, and even enterprises in some regions are already hollow. There are many reasons for this, such as the appreciation of the renminbi, rising labor costs, long project cycles, and low returns, but there are still some companies operating very well. From a national perspective, the economic situation remains controllable and the current monetary policy is correct. Li Shanshan, a researcher at Bank of Communications International Banking, also believes that according to the proportion of previous years, the estimated new credit in April is more than 700 billion. The effect of monetary policy in the first quarter has been reflected, and will continue to be reflected in the second quarter. The second quarter may maintain a steady trend. The algorithm of MU Securities Banking analyst Mu Hua is relatively simple. Dividing the credit increase in the first quarter by 3 is the credit increase in April. Although the monetary policy has changed in the second quarter, it basically does not affect the credit in April. Incremental. According to central bank data, the new RMB loans in the first quarter were 2.24 trillion yuan, which makes it possible to estimate that the new credit will exceed 700 billion in April. Ding Jianchen, vice president of the School of Finance of the University of International Business and Economics, told reporters: "This year's corporate loans are tighter than last year. Banks will lend a lot of money in the first quarter, and the first quarter will be higher than the first few quarters of the year. The consistent strategy of the year after the year. But it can be expected that the money will be tightened throughout the year, and the bank reserve ratio will continue to rise. However, the volume of money in 2009 and 2010 is too large, and it is now in a period of high inflation. He stressed that the main body of the policy is the central bank, and the adjustment target is the entire economy. The amount and price of money, passed through the commercial banks and enterprises, and finally transmitted to consumers, is full of uncertainty. Due to the transmission of monetary policy, enterprises, especially real estate companies, are under tight financial resources. Ding Zhijie, a professor at the School of Finance of the University of International Business and Economics, believes that credit management is an important means of current macroeconomic regulation and control. But the effects of monetary policy have become apparent. The interbank borrowing market interest rate has dropped below 2%, which indicates that there is a large amount of liquidity within the banking system, the main reason is the credit scale control. The future monetary policy will increase from the overall perspective. "Although Zhou Xiaochuan said that there is no upper limit for bank reserves, the current reserve ratio has reached 20.5%. The central bank should make further adjustments in interest rates. Interest rates will not increase, and the demand for loans will still be large." Professor Ding Zhijie said.

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