“According to the 2010 export data, the suspension of production by Japanese steel companies for half a year will result in a reduction of at least 7 million tons of high-end sheet metal exports in Japan, which will lead to a shortage of high-end sheet global market in the short-term. In the case of global steel supply reduction, China's high-end sheet varieties will benefit from substitution." Dongguan Securities analyst Liu Zhuoping predicted. The data shows that in 2010, Japan exported 43.4 million tons of steel, accounting for 45% of its output, making it the world's largest steel exporter. Among them, the export volume of hot and cold rolled wide strip steel and galvanized steel sheet exceeds 14 million tons. Its main export destinations are Korea, China and other parts of Asia. Qiao Peitao, a researcher at Great Wall Securities, believes that after the earthquake, five major steel mills in Japan were affected by the disaster reduction. It is estimated that the production will be reduced by 22 million tons, accounting for 22% of Japan's crude steel production capacity. The market vacuum released after the production cut is expected to be replaced by domestic steel companies. It is worth mentioning that after the earthquake in Japan, WISCO shares (4.82, -0.04, -0.82%) (600005.SH) and Baosteel shares (7.00, -0.05, -0.71%) (600019.SH) have been raised 4 times. The ex-factory price of monthly oriented silicon steel has increased by RMB 1,000/ton and RMB 1,000-1200/ton respectively. Some brokerage researchers pointed out that Japanese steel mills were damaged by the earthquake. China's silicon steel production companies such as Wuhan Iron and Steel and Baosteel will be expected to fill this market vacancy. High-end sheet gap after the earthquake As of now, Japan is an important high-end steel production base in the world. According to the World Iron and Steel Institute (IISI), Japan's total steel output in 2010 was 110 million tons, accounting for 7.78% of global production. Among them, more than 70% belong to high-end varieties. China's steel imports are mainly based on plates, especially for Japanese high-end plate imports. According to China's imports in 2010, the number of steel products originating from Japan is about 7.78 million tons, of which the number of plates reached 6.79 million tons, and the ratio of plates to plate is as high as 87.3%. Among the plates imported from China in 2010, Japanese plates accounted for 48.75. %. In particular, some of the imported steel products, such as cold-rolled wide strip steel and galvanized steel sheets, are mainly imported in high-grade or domestic shortages, mainly in automobile boards and home appliance boards, rather than ordinary cold-rolled sheets for general industrial use. Haitong Securities (10.16, 0.26, 2.63%) Liu Yanqi, senior analyst of the steel industry, said that from the overall import situation of China's steel products in 2011, the proportion of steel imports from Japan accounted for 45.73% of China's total steel imports, accounting for the end of 2010. has seen an increase. Liu Zhuoping believes that due to the supply gap of high-end plates in China, it will benefit domestic high-end plate companies, and the orders of related enterprises may increase. In the production of domestic steel products, the closest to Japanese steel plates is Baosteel's products. Baosteel Co., Ltd. is the largest manufacturer of cold rolled sheet in China. In 2009, the sales volume of cold rolled products was 8.839 million tons, accounting for 42.8% of the company's total sales. Among them, Baosteel's domestic market share of automotive panels is over 50%, and the domestic market share of home appliances and color-coated panels is 37.3% and 54%. In 2009, Baosteel exported 1.72 million tons of steel, accounting for 7.7%. Baosteel's production of silicon steel in 2009 was 1.165 million tons, and the output of oriented silicon steel was about 91,000 tons. In 2010, the output of silicon steel increased to 1.28 million tons, and the output of oriented silicon steel was about 100,000 tons. In addition, in 2011, Baosteel will add a high-magnetic silicon steel production line with an output of about 125,000 tons of oriented silicon steel. Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. is the largest oriented silicon steel producer in China with a production capacity of 440,000 tons and a domestic market share of over 50%. Previously, due to the price of Japanese and Russian oriented silicon steel, the price of oriented silicon steel fell sharply in 2008-2009, and has remained at historically low level since 2010. Liu Zhuoping said that the strong earthquake in Japan will affect the production and export volume of its oriented silicon steel, ease the supply pressure of domestically oriented silicon steel, and help the price of domestically oriented silicon steel to rebound. Our reporter called WISCO and Baosteel respectively on the same day, but the phone has not been answered. Steel prices stop falling and rebound Guoxin Securities analyst Zheng Dong said that the Japanese earthquake will have a certain impact on steel supply in China and other parts of the world in the short term, which will lead to an increase in steel prices. Mainly after the earthquake in Japan, it will have a certain impact on Japanese steel production and exports in the short term. On the other hand, in the post-earthquake reconstruction process, the demand for more steel will be increased, which will also help stimulate steel prices. Steel House data shows that China's domestic steel market prices have also rebounded since March 14 and market prices have risen significantly. At present, the domestic market price of 20mm HRB335 rebar and 5.75mm hot rolled coil has increased by about 50-100 yuan/ton compared with March 11. Up to now, Rizhao Steel has upgraded the latest hot-rolled coil export offer to US$725/tonne (CFR), which is slightly higher than US$5-10/ton before the earthquake in Japan. In addition, since Japan basically does not produce relatively low-end construction steel, and post-disaster reconstruction will also form demand for such steel, which is conducive to China's steel exports. Since Japanese steel mills produce mostly sheet metal and the production capacity of major steel mills is very large, the demand is met only by the supply of neighboring countries. As a major producer of building materials such as rebar, China's high-grade (new grade 3 and above) rebar will benefit from this. Xinxing Casting Pipe (10.20, 0.32, 3.24%) (000778.SZ) The relevant staff of the Securities Department told this reporter that if necessary, the company will consider expanding the Japanese construction market. The company's International Trade Department will make a unified arrangement. Up to now, the company's export revenue has accounted for about 30% of the company's operating income. However, at this stage, exports are mainly based on Middle Eastern countries. Zheng Dong said that investors should focus on the favorable changes in steel formation in the recent events, such as ST vanadium and titanium (000629.SZ), Baosteel, Wuhan Iron and Steel, Daye Special Steel (17.70, -0.19, -1.06%) (000708.SZ), emerging cast pipes, and stellar technology (32.18, -0.47, -1.44%) (002132.SZ) are the focus of attention.
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