On January 25, the World Bank released the 2010 Global Economic Outlook report in Beijing, saying that China has become the engine of economic growth in East Asia and the Pacific. China's economic growth is expected to be 9% in 2010, which is higher than the previous forecast of 8.7%.
The report pointed out that due to the financial crisis, global GDP fell by about 2.2% in 2009. The growth rate is expected to reach 3.2% in 2010. However, as the impact of fiscal stimulus is gradually weakening, the recovery process of the world economy will also slow down in the second half of this year.
In the short term, the rapid recovery of the Chinese economy is the most striking. “This is mainly due to China’s stable macroeconomic environment and the strong measures taken by the Chinese government,†said Hans Timo, director of the World Bank’s forecasting bureau.
He predicted that China's inflationary pressure in 2010 will not be too great, but the issue of asset bubble prices should be taken seriously. He suggested that China gradually withdraw from the stimulus policy. "Because it is too early or too late, it will bring disadvantages to the economy."
In the past, Japan used to stimulate the economy too much, but did not choose to withdraw at an appropriate time, which led to negative growth for more than 10 years.
This situation is also global, and the stimulus policy exits too early or too late, which will cause the second recession of the economy (economic negative growth), but "the possibility of a temporary economic re-exposure is not great."
Positive export growth compensates for investment decline The World Bank forecasting agency predicted in 2009 that the forecast for China's GDP growth rate in 2010 was 8.7%.
However, the newly released statistics show that China's economic growth rate in 2009 was 8.7%, especially in the fourth quarter, the economic growth was strong, reaching 10.7%, which made the World Bank judge that China's economic growth in 2009 will still be very fast, and in the near future. Upgraded the 2010 economic forecast.
Han Weisen, chief economist of the World Bank's representative office in China, explained that the third carriage of economic growth, consumption, showed a stable and neutral situation, and the other two carriages showed a long-lasting trend.
"We judge that the export prospects of the global economy in 2010 are better than last year. China's net exports will also rebound with the recovery of the world economy. On the contrary, investment in the crisis situation last year rose too fast, and this year is unlikely to continue. Keeping this increase will show a certain decline," he said.
The National Bureau of Statistics has not yet given the contribution rate of investment, consumption and exports to the economy in 2009. It is generally believed that the contribution of exports to the economy in 2009 was negative, investment contributed the most to the economy, and consumption was second.
In 2009, the growth rate of nominal investment in China for the whole year was over 30%, and the actual growth rate was even faster. The annual export volume was 12017 billion US dollars, down 16.0%; the import and export offset, the trade surplus was 196.1 billion US dollars, a decrease of 99.4 billion US dollars from the previous year. The total retail sales of consumer goods for the year was 1,254.3 billion yuan, an increase of 15.5% over the previous year.
However, Hans Timo stressed that the rapid growth of Chinese investment is mainly obtained under the condition that credit is too loose, which makes economic growth rely more on capital than labor. This growth has certain problems.
Especially after the consumer price has turned positive in November last year, there will be no big increase in inflationary pressure this year, but problems such as the real estate bubble are becoming more apparent. “This is an important reason why the stimulus policy needs to be phased out,†he said.
Gradually withdrawing from economic stimulus policy Hans Timo said: Although China's economic development has inherent growth potential, in the medium and long term, economic growth cannot always hope for the government's fiscal stimulus. “Step-by-step exit will be the best way. Because there are always limits to economic stimulus policies.â€
The failure of Japan’s economic stimulus policies in the late 1980s is a good example. At that time, the Japanese government implemented several economic stimulus plans in succession, hoping to quickly revitalize the economy through public construction projects and loan programs. However, the results were very disappointing. From 1996 to 2002, the Japanese economy remained stagnant, with a per capita GDP growth of only 0.2%. The continued economic stimulus policy did not ultimately increase Japan’s economic growth rate.
The main reason for this is that economic growth has not been translated into driving through services and consumption. Therefore, the effect of the government to stimulate the economy is of little significance.
Hans Timo believes that the biggest driving force in the initial stage of economic recovery is usually the government. However, with the gradual recovery of the economy, private capital must replace government investment as the main driving force of the economy, so as to ensure the sustained recovery of the economy. And growth. Otherwise, there will be a spiral of economic decline and a risk of bubbles.
However, the withdrawal of economic stimulus policies cannot be too fast, because the recovery of private capital requires a process. If private capital is not ready, the economic stimulus policy will completely retreat, and it will lead to another crisis in the economy.
Hans Timo stressed that "the adjustment of stimulus policies is not necessarily related to the speed of economic recovery. The timing of economic stimulus policy withdrawal should depend on the fiscal space of each country."
For example, although Eastern European countries have fiscal stimulus, but the economic recovery is still slow, and their fiscal space is not large, they can consider retreating. China’s government finances still have room for effective stimulus policies.
Hans added that it is not difficult to discuss when China withdraws its stimulus policy. The key is how to ensure the realization of the medium and long-term goals of China's economic development, how to promote the development of the service industry, and avoid excessive dependence on the heavy industry.
Han Weisen also said that people tend to pay too much attention to how to stimulate the economy, but we should also see that the stimulus itself has a negative side. In the long run, China must find a suitable alternative to stimulus policies.
The report pointed out that due to the financial crisis, global GDP fell by about 2.2% in 2009. The growth rate is expected to reach 3.2% in 2010. However, as the impact of fiscal stimulus is gradually weakening, the recovery process of the world economy will also slow down in the second half of this year.
In the short term, the rapid recovery of the Chinese economy is the most striking. “This is mainly due to China’s stable macroeconomic environment and the strong measures taken by the Chinese government,†said Hans Timo, director of the World Bank’s forecasting bureau.
He predicted that China's inflationary pressure in 2010 will not be too great, but the issue of asset bubble prices should be taken seriously. He suggested that China gradually withdraw from the stimulus policy. "Because it is too early or too late, it will bring disadvantages to the economy."
In the past, Japan used to stimulate the economy too much, but did not choose to withdraw at an appropriate time, which led to negative growth for more than 10 years.
This situation is also global, and the stimulus policy exits too early or too late, which will cause the second recession of the economy (economic negative growth), but "the possibility of a temporary economic re-exposure is not great."
Positive export growth compensates for investment decline The World Bank forecasting agency predicted in 2009 that the forecast for China's GDP growth rate in 2010 was 8.7%.
However, the newly released statistics show that China's economic growth rate in 2009 was 8.7%, especially in the fourth quarter, the economic growth was strong, reaching 10.7%, which made the World Bank judge that China's economic growth in 2009 will still be very fast, and in the near future. Upgraded the 2010 economic forecast.
Han Weisen, chief economist of the World Bank's representative office in China, explained that the third carriage of economic growth, consumption, showed a stable and neutral situation, and the other two carriages showed a long-lasting trend.
"We judge that the export prospects of the global economy in 2010 are better than last year. China's net exports will also rebound with the recovery of the world economy. On the contrary, investment in the crisis situation last year rose too fast, and this year is unlikely to continue. Keeping this increase will show a certain decline," he said.
The National Bureau of Statistics has not yet given the contribution rate of investment, consumption and exports to the economy in 2009. It is generally believed that the contribution of exports to the economy in 2009 was negative, investment contributed the most to the economy, and consumption was second.
In 2009, the growth rate of nominal investment in China for the whole year was over 30%, and the actual growth rate was even faster. The annual export volume was 12017 billion US dollars, down 16.0%; the import and export offset, the trade surplus was 196.1 billion US dollars, a decrease of 99.4 billion US dollars from the previous year. The total retail sales of consumer goods for the year was 1,254.3 billion yuan, an increase of 15.5% over the previous year.
However, Hans Timo stressed that the rapid growth of Chinese investment is mainly obtained under the condition that credit is too loose, which makes economic growth rely more on capital than labor. This growth has certain problems.
Especially after the consumer price has turned positive in November last year, there will be no big increase in inflationary pressure this year, but problems such as the real estate bubble are becoming more apparent. “This is an important reason why the stimulus policy needs to be phased out,†he said.
Gradually withdrawing from economic stimulus policy Hans Timo said: Although China's economic development has inherent growth potential, in the medium and long term, economic growth cannot always hope for the government's fiscal stimulus. “Step-by-step exit will be the best way. Because there are always limits to economic stimulus policies.â€
The failure of Japan’s economic stimulus policies in the late 1980s is a good example. At that time, the Japanese government implemented several economic stimulus plans in succession, hoping to quickly revitalize the economy through public construction projects and loan programs. However, the results were very disappointing. From 1996 to 2002, the Japanese economy remained stagnant, with a per capita GDP growth of only 0.2%. The continued economic stimulus policy did not ultimately increase Japan’s economic growth rate.
The main reason for this is that economic growth has not been translated into driving through services and consumption. Therefore, the effect of the government to stimulate the economy is of little significance.
Hans Timo believes that the biggest driving force in the initial stage of economic recovery is usually the government. However, with the gradual recovery of the economy, private capital must replace government investment as the main driving force of the economy, so as to ensure the sustained recovery of the economy. And growth. Otherwise, there will be a spiral of economic decline and a risk of bubbles.
However, the withdrawal of economic stimulus policies cannot be too fast, because the recovery of private capital requires a process. If private capital is not ready, the economic stimulus policy will completely retreat, and it will lead to another crisis in the economy.
Hans Timo stressed that "the adjustment of stimulus policies is not necessarily related to the speed of economic recovery. The timing of economic stimulus policy withdrawal should depend on the fiscal space of each country."
For example, although Eastern European countries have fiscal stimulus, but the economic recovery is still slow, and their fiscal space is not large, they can consider retreating. China’s government finances still have room for effective stimulus policies.
Hans added that it is not difficult to discuss when China withdraws its stimulus policy. The key is how to ensure the realization of the medium and long-term goals of China's economic development, how to promote the development of the service industry, and avoid excessive dependence on the heavy industry.
Han Weisen also said that people tend to pay too much attention to how to stimulate the economy, but we should also see that the stimulus itself has a negative side. In the long run, China must find a suitable alternative to stimulus policies.
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