How fast can China's economy maintain its growth rate in the next five years? Which indicators will be referenced by macroeconomic regulation?

Yesterday, the Xinhua News Agency issued the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" (hereinafter referred to as "Recommendations"). Not only is the protection of the environment clearly listed as one of the objectives of macroeconomic regulation and control, energy and water. Indicators such as resource consumption and construction land will also form a dual control of total amount and intensity. A multi-objective system that combines quality, efficiency, environment and medium- and long-term coordination will become the new guiding framework for China's economic development policies.

Although hot topics such as environmental protection have been included in the macro-control targets and may have an impact on economic growth, Xu Shaoshi, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, made clear at the press conference of the State Council for the next five years that it is stabilizing growth, promoting reform and adjustment. Among the policy objectives of structure, benefit to the people, and risk prevention, steady growth is the number one.

Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, pointed out the relevant situation drafted in the "Proposal" to the Fifth Plenary Session and pointed out that to achieve the goal of achieving GDP and the per capita income of urban and rural residents doubling by 2010 by 2020, the necessary growth must be maintained. speed. Looking at the doubling of GDP, the bottom line of economic growth from 2016 to 2020 is above 6.5%. On the 1st of November, Premier Li Keqiang said that China has proposed to achieve the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way by 2020. This requires an average annual economic growth of more than 6.5% over the next five years.

Employment, environment, and efficiency are mentioned at new heights
Guided by the development concept of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing, the "Proposal" proposes to innovate and improve the macro-control methods.

Specifically, the "Proposal" clarifies that "in accordance with the requirements of total adjustment and orientation, simultaneous short-term and medium-term integration, domestic and international co-ordination, reform and development coordination, improve macro-control, adopt camera regulation and precise control measures, Timely pre-adjustment and fine-tuning, pay more attention to expanding employment, stabilizing prices, adjusting structure, improving efficiency, preventing and controlling risks, and protecting the environment.

Compared with the goals mentioned in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period to maintain stable and rapid economic development, adjust economic structure and manage inflation expectations, the “Proposal” refers to employment, efficiency, and environment to a new target level.

Since the protection environment was first seen in the macro-control mode, the political economist Lu Zhengwei, the chief economist of Industrial Bank (15.06, -0.05, -0.33%), analyzed the "First Financial Daily" and said that the new formulation of macro-control Incorporating the experience of these years of regulation and control practices to promote future regulation and control policies is more effective, and future economic growth emphasizes range control, which will change the traditional thinking.

Why does the "Recommendation" emphasize the development goals of quality and efficiency? This is closely related to the new features of the current new normal.

Xi Jinping pointed out the relevant situation drafted in the "Proposal" to the Fifth Plenary Session. It pointed out that under the new normal, China's economic development shows three characteristics of speed change, structural optimization and power conversion. The growth rate should shift from high speed to medium speed and development mode. From the scale-speed type to the mass-efficiency type, the economic structure adjustment should shift from incremental capacity expansion to adjustment of stocks and optimization of increments. The development momentum should be driven from factors such as resources and low-cost labor to innovation. These changes are not transferred by human will, and are an inevitable requirement of the staged characteristics of China's economic development.

Xi Jinping said that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, China's development must not only look at speed, but also increase, but also quality. We must focus on achieving quality, efficiency, no water, sustainable growth, and focus on transforming economic development. Realize economic growth in ways, optimize economic structure, improve the ecological environment, and improve the quality and efficiency of development.

Stable growth at 6.5% of the bottom line
In a diversified target system, steady growth is a top priority, because development is still the top priority.

Xu Shaoshi said at the press conference of the State New Office on November 3 that in the next five years, steady growth is the number one in the policy objectives of stabilizing growth, promoting reform, restructuring, benefiting people's livelihood, and preventing risks.

In order to ensure that the GDP and the per capita income of urban and rural residents will double by 2010 by 2020, the "Proposal" also proposes to maintain the medium-high growth rate in the next five years.

In explaining this goal, Xi Jinping pointed out that from the doubling of GDP, the bottom line of economic growth from 2016 to 2020 is more than 6.5%. From the doubling of the per capita income of urban and rural residents, the per capita disposable income of urban residents and the per capita net income of rural residents in 2010 were 19,109 yuan and 5,919 yuan respectively. By doubling by 2020, according to the requirements of residents' income growth and economic growth, the average annual economic growth during the 13th Five-Year Plan period will reach at least 6.5%. The economy maintains rapid growth in the medium and high, which is conducive to improving people's livelihood and allowing the people to more fully feel the fruits of building a well-off society in an all-round way.

This is also the first time that China has confirmed the 6.5% economic growth rate, which is basically in line with previous market expectations.

In order to achieve medium- and high-speed growth in a complex domestic and international environment, Wang Tao, Asia's chief economist at UBS Securities, believes that the decision-making level plans to promote innovation, upgrade manufacturing, increase R&D spending, implement a network power strategy, and promote agricultural modernization. Regional coordinated development. It is expected that the proportion of R&D expenditures to GDP will further increase in the next few years. Under the background of promoting mass entrepreneurship and innovation, new enterprise registrations may continue to grow rapidly.

At the same time, in line with the previous policy tone, Wang Tao believes that the “13th Five-Year Plan” will continue to promote policies to promote employment, increase wage growth, expand social security coverage, and further develop services, thereby continuing to increase consumption for economic growth. contribution. Among them, reducing industry access and liberalizing service prices in competitive areas will help attract private sector investment in related fields. It is expected that the proportion of service industry in GDP will continue to rise to over 50% in the next few years.

Binding indicators for energy, water resources and construction land
There are constraints on growth incentives, and resources and land will be the binding targets in the above multi-objective system.

In fact, as early as the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, the energy consumption intensity per unit of GDP was used as a binding indicator for the first time. Transferred to the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", and proposed to control the total amount of energy consumption.

Xi Jinping said in the explanation that it is necessary and effective to do so now. According to the grim situation facing the current resource environment, on the basis of continuing to implement the dual control of total energy consumption and consumption intensity, water resources and construction land should also implement dual control of total amount and intensity, as a binding indicator, establish a target responsibility system. Reasonable decomposition and implementation.

Xi Jinping further pointed out that to promote the construction of ecological civilization and solve the problem of tight resource constraints, serious environmental pollution, and degradation of ecosystems, it is necessary to take some hard measures to achieve effective results. Implementing dual control actions such as energy and water consumption, construction land, etc., is a hard measure. That is to say, it is necessary to control the total amount as well as the energy consumption per unit of GDP, water consumption, and the intensity of construction land. This work is done well, not only can save energy and land and water resources, reduce pollutant emissions from the source, but also force the transformation of economic development mode and improve the green level of China's economic development.

Wang Tao believes that the Fifth Plenary Session will make green development one of the key development goals for the first time. The meeting decided to establish and improve the system of energy use, water rights, emission rights, and initial allocation of carbon emission rights, and implement the action plan for prevention and control of the atmosphere, water and soil pollution. During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, environmental tax legislation will be completed, resource tax reform will be expanded, various "green finance" investment and financing channels will be established, and support policies will be introduced to encourage the development of environmental technologies and products. New energy technologies and applications, new energy vehicles, third-party environmental governance services, new building materials, and emissions trading markets may continue to enjoy policy support.

Flexible control tools, outstanding price signals
On the specific control tools, the "Recommendations" also require improvement and innovation.

The "Proposal" proposes to implement macro-control according to the national medium- and long-term development planning goals and the total supply and demand pattern, stabilize the policy tone, enhance predictability and transparency, innovate control ideas and policy tools, and increase directional control on the basis of interval control. Targeted and accurate. We will improve the policy system of focusing on fiscal policy and monetary policy, industrial policy, regional policy, investment policy, consumption policy, and price policy, and enhance the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies. Use big data technology to improve the timeliness and accuracy of economic operation information.

The political commissar of Lu analyzed that from the "recommendations", macroeconomic regulation and control will jump out of the traditional fiscal and monetary policy framework, the number of regulatory tools will increase, and the economy will be better regulated. At the same time, the issue of information sources will be adopted. New methods such as big data provide more comprehensive support and basis for decision-making.

The newspaper noted that the "Proposal" specifically mentioned reducing the government's intervention in price formation, fully liberalizing the prices of goods and services in the competitive sector, and liberalizing the price of competitive links in the fields of electricity, oil, natural gas, transportation, and telecommunications.

In fact, the more emphasis on the role of price also shows that the Fifth Plenary Session and the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" inherited the ideas of the Third Plenary Session. Because the Third Plenary Session has long been clear, the market will play a decisive role in resource allocation and better play the role of the government.

The political commissar of Lu believes that the use and coordination of various policy instruments indicates that under the background of China's economic transition, the regulatory policies are also facing a transition. The macro-control will change from quantitative to price-based, and the future will gradually change only to see numbers, such as M2. The way of data or total loans has shifted to more market signals such as interest rates and prices.

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