In the first three quarters, the overall demand for electricity consumption in the country maintained a relatively rapid growth. However, in September, the use of heavy industry electricity led to a sharp decline in the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society. The pulling effect of electricity consumption in key industries gradually weakened, and the electricity consumption structure of light and heavy industries optimization. The newly installed capacity exceeded the same period of the previous year. The national installed capacity of power generation exceeded 900 million kilowatts. The power generation market was generally stable and stable, and the utilization hours of power generation equipment in the country increased significantly year-on-year. From January to October, the national total electricity consumption was 348.46 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 17.03%. In October, the national total electricity consumption was 340 billion kWh, an increase of 8.48%.
Electricity price reform is slow.
Since the National Development and Reform Commission promulgated the coal-electricity price linkage mechanism in 2004, the country has implemented four coal-fired price linkages, but there is still a large gap.
The market-oriented orientation of power system reform expects the government power department to transfer the power price dominance to the market entity; while the electricity price function is guided by investment, guiding investment, improving energy efficiency, and protecting the environment, and expecting the electricity price formation mechanism to be from producer sovereignty. Producer sovereignty and consumer sovereignty are shifting direction, and electricity price leverage is used to promote power development and promote energy conservation and emission reduction.
New energy is the focus of power investment.
To achieve the goal of non-fossil energy consumption in 2020, which accounts for 15% of primary energy consumption and 40% to 45% of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP, it is necessary to ensure that non-fossil energy consumption accounts for the proportion of primary energy consumption by 2015. Reached over 11%. In 2015, the total installed capacity of the country will reach about 1.43 billion kilowatts, which requires more than 400 million kilowatts of new installed capacity in the “12th Five-Year Planâ€, including 100 million kilowatts of hydropower, 36 million kilowatts of nuclear power, and 68 million wind and renewable energy. Kilowatts, gas and electricity 16 million kilowatts.
The coal market is generally balanced.
In most areas, the price of thermal coal is slightly tightened by the moderate inventory of the power plant and the heating in some areas. The balance between supply and demand is still the main tone. At present, the contract coal price and the spot price have a price difference of 100-150 yuan/ton. The possibility that the coal price remains high in the fourth quarter is also very large. Therefore, the contract coal price must rise this year, or the range is above 10%.
Maintain the “sell†rating of the power industry.
Due to the expected increase in coal prices in 2011, coal-fired power linkages will not start, we believe that the current power industry still does not have investment value, it is recommended to sell power stocks. However, if the price is raised, there is a trading opportunity. Only in the true sense of coal-electricity linkage, or in the implementation of the electricity reform program, the price of electricity has increased, and coal prices continue to fall, in order to increase the holdings of the power industry.
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