Since 2010, China’s foreign trade has fully recovered, and the absolute amount of imports and exports has exceeded the level before the financial crisis; the export situation of major products has been good, the trade structure has been optimized, and the proportion of exports to emerging economies has increased. Looking to the future, the rapid recovery of the world economy brought about by the joint efforts of governments of various countries to save the world will end. In the first half of 2011, the world economy will be in the overlapping stage of the short-term, medium- and long-term economic cycle decline, and domestic demand will show signs of slowing down. The base effect shows, and it is expected that the growth rate of foreign trade will gradually slow down. In the second half of 2011, the world economy and China’s economy will stabilize, and the international trade and investment activity will increase, and China’s foreign trade growth will also gradually pick up. I. Characteristics of China's Foreign Trade Operations in 2010 (I) Recovery of Imports and Exports 1. The high import growth rate stabilized In January-November 2010, under the influence of many factors at home and abroad, China's imports showed a strong growth trend, and the total import volume increased significantly, up 40.3% year-on-year and 18.2% over the same period of 2008, faster than exports. The growth rate was 7.3 percentage points. However, with the slowdown in domestic economic growth, the growth rate of domestic industrial production and fixed asset investment has been adjusted month by month, and the growth rate of imports has shown a high level of decline.
2. The export growth recovered well In January-November 2010, China's exports achieved rapid recovery, which was a year-on-year increase of 33% and an increase of 8% over the same period of 2008. In November, it exported 153.33 billion US dollars, creating a record high monthly export value. It can thus be seen that China’s export situation has been better than it was before the financial crisis. It is worth noting that with the weakening of foreign companies’ demand for “inventory cover†and the shrinking overseas market demand, combined with the increase in the base period over the same period, the monthly export growth rate has continued to fall for five consecutive months since June and has declined in October. 22.9%.
(B) Foreign Trade Diversification Strategy After the effective implementation of the financial crisis, China has paid more attention to the implementation of the trade diversification strategy. On the one hand, it has enhanced trade with emerging market countries and regions, and has significantly accelerated exports to countries such as ASEAN and Russia; on the other hand, Increased the scale of imports from other countries, supported the economic growth of the countries concerned, and contributed to the recovery of the world economy.
1. Imports from major trading partners such as the EU and the United States have increased the scale of imports from major economies such as the United States, Japan, and Europe. According to the statistics of relevant countries and regions, the EU’s exports to China from January to July 2010 grew by 41.3%, higher than the 16.5 percentage points from China’s imports; from January to August 2010, the US’s exports to China increased by 35.6%, which is higher than China's import growth rate was 11.6 percentage points. From the data, we can see that in the process of countries seeking various measures to get rid of the financial crisis, China’s strong import growth has increased the external demand of these countries and regions, which has alleviated the economic difficulties of the above countries to a certain extent and helped the world economy. Out of the shadow of the crisis.
2. Export growth to emerging economies has increased Since the beginning of this year, China’s export growth to emerging markets has accelerated, and the export market continues to maintain a diversified trend. From January to November 2010, China’s exports to ASEAN, India, Russia, and Brazil increased by 33.6%, 39.9%, 72.7%, and 78.1%, respectively. As the growth rate of exports to emerging markets is higher than that of traditional markets, the proportion of exports from emerging markets has increased and the diversified market structure has been further established.
(3) The structure of import and export products can be optimized 1. The proportion of imports of primary products increased In the first half of 2010, the number of new projects started to grow rapidly in the country, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets in the society was at a high level, the growth in industrial added value was strong, and the price of international bulk commodities surged in the first half of the year, resulting in China’s resource-based products. Imports of primary products, such as agricultural products, have increased.
2. The growth rate of export of high-energy-consumption products fell in the first half of 2010. Due to strong domestic and international demand, production in high-energy-carrying industries such as electricity, steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, and petrochemical industries rebounded at an accelerated pace, and exports of high-energy-carrying products experienced excessive growth. The realization of energy-saving emission reduction targets has brought unprecedented pressure. For the purpose of adjusting the structure of export products and suppressing the export of high-energy-carrying products, the state has cancelled the export tax rebates for 406 high-energy-consumption products since July 15th, which has played a minor role in improving the export structure. In September, the export volume of 406 kinds of "two highs" products fell by 12.9%, and the scale of exports fell by 60.4% from June.
(IV) Scale of Trade Surplus Down China's current economic growth rate ranks in the front rank among the world's major economies, domestic demand recovery is better than external demand, and the trade balance continues to improve. In terms of trade, the surplus mainly comes from processing trade, and the trade deficit under general trade is US$37.83 billion. From the perspective of the nature of the company, foreign-invested enterprises are the main source of trade surplus. As can be seen from the data, most of the gains from processing trade are obtained by foreign companies, and their surplus does not indicate that China has obtained huge benefits from exports.
II. Forecast of Foreign Trade Situation in 2011 (I) Analysis of Influencing Factors 1. International factors: The uncertainty of world economic growth has increased, and the external environment facing foreign trade is complex.
(1) The world economy shows signs of slowing down. Last year, the economic growth of major economies such as the United States and Japan all showed signs of slowing down. The US annual GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2010 was only 1.7%, compared with 2% in the third quarter, which was a 2.0 and 1.7 percentage point slower than the first quarter respectively; In the second quarter, seasonally adjusted growth was only 0.4% in the second quarter and 0.9% in the third quarter, which was 1.2 and 0.7 percentage points lower than the first quarter. The same is true of emerging economies. The data shows that since the second half of 2010, the effect of the economic stimulus policies jointly announced by various countries in the previous round has weakened, and the world economy has entered a period of “low-speed growth†from a “quick policy-driven recovery period†and is expected to be short in the first half of 2011. During the overlapping periods of the decline of various economic cycles in the medium, long and long periods, the world GDP rate will decrease.
(2) The fluctuation of international commodity prices has increased. As the economic growth of developed economies slows down, emerging economies will be affected by overseas trade, and the growth rate will also slow down. The actual demand for international bulk commodities will weaken in the next phase. In order to prevent the economy from experiencing a double bottom, some national monetary authorities have started the second round of “quantitative easing†policies, and global liquidity will be further relaxed, which will increase the price fluctuations in global commodity markets. In addition, at present, developed and developing economies use their currency and exchange rate policies to fight against their competitors for their respective interests. The international currency market is filled with smoke, currency wars are imminent, exchange rate fluctuations of major international currencies will increase, and international commodity prices will increase. It will also be significantly affected and will not be conducive to the stable operation of China's foreign trade.
(3) The adverse effects of international trade protection, exchange rate pressures, etc. deepen. Affected by the financial crisis, the international market has become more competitive, and trade protectionism has become increasingly serious in all countries. Some developed countries represented by the United States have widely implemented trade investigations and trade sanctions against China in many fields, and even targeted clean energy in emerging industries. The product also submitted trade investigations to China. Moreover, due to the needs of domestic politics, the United States, the European Union, and Japan have recently joined hands to exert pressure on China’s exchange rate, intending to classify China as a “currency manipulator†and force the reciprocal appreciation of ***, which will be extremely unfavorable for future exports. influences.
2. Domestic factors: China's economy will maintain steady growth, and the impact of factor price increases cannot be ignored.
(1) The economic growth will show the trend of low and high. In the first half of 2011, under the influence of the base effect and the economic cycle of China's economy, the growth rate of GDP will be relatively slow. In the second half of 2011, due to the stabilization of the world economy and the base of the same period, the economic growth rate will gradually rise.
(2) Strengthen the implementation of structural adjustment strategies. The year 2011 is the first year of China's "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" proposal clearly states that accelerating the transformation of economic development must go through the entire process of economic and social development and all fields, and persist in changing the strategic adjustment of the economic structure. The main direction of economic development. Under the guidance of this policy, the adjustment of demand structure will focus more on domestic demand, especially consumer demand; on the adjustment of industrial structure, seven strategic emerging industry development plans such as energy conservation, environmental protection, and biology have been fully launched; Energy efficiency and ecological protection will be an important starting point for economic restructuring. In this context, the proportion of China's exports to GDP and the structure of export products will also show corresponding adjustments.
(3) The gradual appreciation of the exchange rate. Since 2010, the United States and other western countries have continued to make a fuss about the exchange rate issue and implemented high pressure. Since China reopened the exchange reform on June 19, 2010, *** has appreciated by about 3%, and some export companies have felt pressure from the appreciation of the ***. It is expected that the exchange rate will continue to show an upward trend in the next phase. *** Appreciation will affect the competitiveness of China's export products, it will also affect the operating income of foreign-funded enterprises, and it is not conducive to the steady growth of foreign trade.
(4) The production cost is further increased. From the perspective of the labor factor cost, in 2011, with the continuous advancement of the national income distribution reform, the income distribution pattern will continue to be adjusted in favor of residents and laborers, and the rise in wages for workers will become inevitable. Looking at the cost of resources and energy elements, the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" proposes to deepen the reform of resource-based product prices and factor markets. At present, some regions have taken the lead in piloting. It is expected that the pace of reforms in resources and energy prices will accelerate in 2011, and the pressure on resources and environmental costs faced by export companies will increase. Judging from the cost of funding factors, the central bank has already started the process of raising interest rates, raising the benchmark interest rate twice a year for financial institutions, and at the same time, the exchange rate has rapidly increased, and the cost of capital is rising. The increase in the cost of production factors represented by resources, labor, and capital will reduce the export profits of enterprises.
(B) Forecast of Future Foreign Trade Situation 1. Aggregate Forecast In 2011, comprehensive consideration was given to the world economic growth situation, changes in demand of major economies, domestic industrial production growth and investment and consumption trends, exchange rate fluctuations, domestic and foreign price changes, and the base effect of the same period, and other factors. It is estimated that foreign trade exports will increase by 16 Around %, imports increased by about 20%, with a surplus of about $170 billion, a slight drop from 2010.
2. Structural prediction of exports: From the perspective of product structure, under the background of the country's vigorous adjustment of industrial structure, stepping up elimination of backward production capacity, and encouraging the development of strategic emerging industries, the structure of China's export products will be further optimized. Among the major export products, the export of electromechanical products and high-tech products continued to maintain the growth momentum, but its growth rate may slow down due to the end of the world's “industrial inventories covering periodâ€; resource-based products such as rare metals, energy-based products, and high Under the influence of domestic “structural adjustment†policies for products such as energy-carrying products, the growth rate of exports will decline significantly.
Judging from the country structure, due to factors such as slower economic growth, lower demand, frequent trade protectionism and other factors in developed economies, China’s exports to the United States, Japan, and Europe will continue to decline slightly, from the current level to 35%. Left and right; affected by regional economic cooperation factors such as the launching of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, trade between China and ASEAN will continue to deepen, and the proportion of ASEAN exports will continue to rise.
On the import side: Since 2010, natural disasters in agriculture have occurred frequently, and grain production in some areas in China has been affected, and prices of some agricultural products have risen sharply. In the world, major food exporting countries such as Russia have experienced sharp declines in exports due to disasters, and prices of major agricultural products such as international cotton have soared. Due to strategic security and optimization of the structure of imported products, China will appropriately increase the scale of grain imports and increase imports of agricultural products and foodstuffs. proportion.
As China's industrial and investment growth will slow down in 2011, the production of high-energy-consuming industries will be restrained, and the corresponding demand for resource-based products (such as ore, etc.) will decrease, and its import growth rate will decline to a certain extent. Declined.
2. The export growth recovered well In January-November 2010, China's exports achieved rapid recovery, which was a year-on-year increase of 33% and an increase of 8% over the same period of 2008. In November, it exported 153.33 billion US dollars, creating a record high monthly export value. It can thus be seen that China’s export situation has been better than it was before the financial crisis. It is worth noting that with the weakening of foreign companies’ demand for “inventory cover†and the shrinking overseas market demand, combined with the increase in the base period over the same period, the monthly export growth rate has continued to fall for five consecutive months since June and has declined in October. 22.9%.
(B) Foreign Trade Diversification Strategy After the effective implementation of the financial crisis, China has paid more attention to the implementation of the trade diversification strategy. On the one hand, it has enhanced trade with emerging market countries and regions, and has significantly accelerated exports to countries such as ASEAN and Russia; on the other hand, Increased the scale of imports from other countries, supported the economic growth of the countries concerned, and contributed to the recovery of the world economy.
1. Imports from major trading partners such as the EU and the United States have increased the scale of imports from major economies such as the United States, Japan, and Europe. According to the statistics of relevant countries and regions, the EU’s exports to China from January to July 2010 grew by 41.3%, higher than the 16.5 percentage points from China’s imports; from January to August 2010, the US’s exports to China increased by 35.6%, which is higher than China's import growth rate was 11.6 percentage points. From the data, we can see that in the process of countries seeking various measures to get rid of the financial crisis, China’s strong import growth has increased the external demand of these countries and regions, which has alleviated the economic difficulties of the above countries to a certain extent and helped the world economy. Out of the shadow of the crisis.
2. Export growth to emerging economies has increased Since the beginning of this year, China’s export growth to emerging markets has accelerated, and the export market continues to maintain a diversified trend. From January to November 2010, China’s exports to ASEAN, India, Russia, and Brazil increased by 33.6%, 39.9%, 72.7%, and 78.1%, respectively. As the growth rate of exports to emerging markets is higher than that of traditional markets, the proportion of exports from emerging markets has increased and the diversified market structure has been further established.
(3) The structure of import and export products can be optimized 1. The proportion of imports of primary products increased In the first half of 2010, the number of new projects started to grow rapidly in the country, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets in the society was at a high level, the growth in industrial added value was strong, and the price of international bulk commodities surged in the first half of the year, resulting in China’s resource-based products. Imports of primary products, such as agricultural products, have increased.
2. The growth rate of export of high-energy-consumption products fell in the first half of 2010. Due to strong domestic and international demand, production in high-energy-carrying industries such as electricity, steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, and petrochemical industries rebounded at an accelerated pace, and exports of high-energy-carrying products experienced excessive growth. The realization of energy-saving emission reduction targets has brought unprecedented pressure. For the purpose of adjusting the structure of export products and suppressing the export of high-energy-carrying products, the state has cancelled the export tax rebates for 406 high-energy-consumption products since July 15th, which has played a minor role in improving the export structure. In September, the export volume of 406 kinds of "two highs" products fell by 12.9%, and the scale of exports fell by 60.4% from June.
(IV) Scale of Trade Surplus Down China's current economic growth rate ranks in the front rank among the world's major economies, domestic demand recovery is better than external demand, and the trade balance continues to improve. In terms of trade, the surplus mainly comes from processing trade, and the trade deficit under general trade is US$37.83 billion. From the perspective of the nature of the company, foreign-invested enterprises are the main source of trade surplus. As can be seen from the data, most of the gains from processing trade are obtained by foreign companies, and their surplus does not indicate that China has obtained huge benefits from exports.
II. Forecast of Foreign Trade Situation in 2011 (I) Analysis of Influencing Factors 1. International factors: The uncertainty of world economic growth has increased, and the external environment facing foreign trade is complex.
(1) The world economy shows signs of slowing down. Last year, the economic growth of major economies such as the United States and Japan all showed signs of slowing down. The US annual GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2010 was only 1.7%, compared with 2% in the third quarter, which was a 2.0 and 1.7 percentage point slower than the first quarter respectively; In the second quarter, seasonally adjusted growth was only 0.4% in the second quarter and 0.9% in the third quarter, which was 1.2 and 0.7 percentage points lower than the first quarter. The same is true of emerging economies. The data shows that since the second half of 2010, the effect of the economic stimulus policies jointly announced by various countries in the previous round has weakened, and the world economy has entered a period of “low-speed growth†from a “quick policy-driven recovery period†and is expected to be short in the first half of 2011. During the overlapping periods of the decline of various economic cycles in the medium, long and long periods, the world GDP rate will decrease.
(2) The fluctuation of international commodity prices has increased. As the economic growth of developed economies slows down, emerging economies will be affected by overseas trade, and the growth rate will also slow down. The actual demand for international bulk commodities will weaken in the next phase. In order to prevent the economy from experiencing a double bottom, some national monetary authorities have started the second round of “quantitative easing†policies, and global liquidity will be further relaxed, which will increase the price fluctuations in global commodity markets. In addition, at present, developed and developing economies use their currency and exchange rate policies to fight against their competitors for their respective interests. The international currency market is filled with smoke, currency wars are imminent, exchange rate fluctuations of major international currencies will increase, and international commodity prices will increase. It will also be significantly affected and will not be conducive to the stable operation of China's foreign trade.
(3) The adverse effects of international trade protection, exchange rate pressures, etc. deepen. Affected by the financial crisis, the international market has become more competitive, and trade protectionism has become increasingly serious in all countries. Some developed countries represented by the United States have widely implemented trade investigations and trade sanctions against China in many fields, and even targeted clean energy in emerging industries. The product also submitted trade investigations to China. Moreover, due to the needs of domestic politics, the United States, the European Union, and Japan have recently joined hands to exert pressure on China’s exchange rate, intending to classify China as a “currency manipulator†and force the reciprocal appreciation of ***, which will be extremely unfavorable for future exports. influences.
2. Domestic factors: China's economy will maintain steady growth, and the impact of factor price increases cannot be ignored.
(1) The economic growth will show the trend of low and high. In the first half of 2011, under the influence of the base effect and the economic cycle of China's economy, the growth rate of GDP will be relatively slow. In the second half of 2011, due to the stabilization of the world economy and the base of the same period, the economic growth rate will gradually rise.
(2) Strengthen the implementation of structural adjustment strategies. The year 2011 is the first year of China's "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" proposal clearly states that accelerating the transformation of economic development must go through the entire process of economic and social development and all fields, and persist in changing the strategic adjustment of the economic structure. The main direction of economic development. Under the guidance of this policy, the adjustment of demand structure will focus more on domestic demand, especially consumer demand; on the adjustment of industrial structure, seven strategic emerging industry development plans such as energy conservation, environmental protection, and biology have been fully launched; Energy efficiency and ecological protection will be an important starting point for economic restructuring. In this context, the proportion of China's exports to GDP and the structure of export products will also show corresponding adjustments.
(3) The gradual appreciation of the exchange rate. Since 2010, the United States and other western countries have continued to make a fuss about the exchange rate issue and implemented high pressure. Since China reopened the exchange reform on June 19, 2010, *** has appreciated by about 3%, and some export companies have felt pressure from the appreciation of the ***. It is expected that the exchange rate will continue to show an upward trend in the next phase. *** Appreciation will affect the competitiveness of China's export products, it will also affect the operating income of foreign-funded enterprises, and it is not conducive to the steady growth of foreign trade.
(4) The production cost is further increased. From the perspective of the labor factor cost, in 2011, with the continuous advancement of the national income distribution reform, the income distribution pattern will continue to be adjusted in favor of residents and laborers, and the rise in wages for workers will become inevitable. Looking at the cost of resources and energy elements, the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" proposes to deepen the reform of resource-based product prices and factor markets. At present, some regions have taken the lead in piloting. It is expected that the pace of reforms in resources and energy prices will accelerate in 2011, and the pressure on resources and environmental costs faced by export companies will increase. Judging from the cost of funding factors, the central bank has already started the process of raising interest rates, raising the benchmark interest rate twice a year for financial institutions, and at the same time, the exchange rate has rapidly increased, and the cost of capital is rising. The increase in the cost of production factors represented by resources, labor, and capital will reduce the export profits of enterprises.
(B) Forecast of Future Foreign Trade Situation 1. Aggregate Forecast In 2011, comprehensive consideration was given to the world economic growth situation, changes in demand of major economies, domestic industrial production growth and investment and consumption trends, exchange rate fluctuations, domestic and foreign price changes, and the base effect of the same period, and other factors. It is estimated that foreign trade exports will increase by 16 Around %, imports increased by about 20%, with a surplus of about $170 billion, a slight drop from 2010.
2. Structural prediction of exports: From the perspective of product structure, under the background of the country's vigorous adjustment of industrial structure, stepping up elimination of backward production capacity, and encouraging the development of strategic emerging industries, the structure of China's export products will be further optimized. Among the major export products, the export of electromechanical products and high-tech products continued to maintain the growth momentum, but its growth rate may slow down due to the end of the world's “industrial inventories covering periodâ€; resource-based products such as rare metals, energy-based products, and high Under the influence of domestic “structural adjustment†policies for products such as energy-carrying products, the growth rate of exports will decline significantly.
Judging from the country structure, due to factors such as slower economic growth, lower demand, frequent trade protectionism and other factors in developed economies, China’s exports to the United States, Japan, and Europe will continue to decline slightly, from the current level to 35%. Left and right; affected by regional economic cooperation factors such as the launching of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, trade between China and ASEAN will continue to deepen, and the proportion of ASEAN exports will continue to rise.
On the import side: Since 2010, natural disasters in agriculture have occurred frequently, and grain production in some areas in China has been affected, and prices of some agricultural products have risen sharply. In the world, major food exporting countries such as Russia have experienced sharp declines in exports due to disasters, and prices of major agricultural products such as international cotton have soared. Due to strategic security and optimization of the structure of imported products, China will appropriately increase the scale of grain imports and increase imports of agricultural products and foodstuffs. proportion.
As China's industrial and investment growth will slow down in 2011, the production of high-energy-consuming industries will be restrained, and the corresponding demand for resource-based products (such as ore, etc.) will decrease, and its import growth rate will decline to a certain extent. Declined.
The present invention provides a multifunctional pull faucet, comprising: a faucet body, a drawing part is provided at the water outlet port thereof, and the drawing part is connected to a main channel, wherein at least three are provided in the faucet body A branch channel, and the three branch channels are all connected to the main channel. A multifunctional pull faucet provided by the present invention, wherein the hot water channel, the cold water channel and the water purification channel (pure water channel) are all connected to the main channel , And the main channel is connected with the drawing part on the main body of the faucet, so that the drawing part can obtain the water quality (hot water, cold water, purified water or pure water) required by different users, thereby improving the user experience, and , By integrating the hot water channel, cold water channel and pure water channel (pure water channel) into the main channel, the internal structure of the faucet is simplified, and the production cost of the faucet is reduced.
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