Abstract On September 1, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Research Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed that in August 2013, China's manufacturing PMI was 51.0%, up from July. 0.7 percentage points for the year...
On September 1, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Research Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed that in August 2013, China's manufacturing PMI was 51.0%, up 0.7 from July. The percentage point is a new high for the year.
Zhao Qinghe, a senior analyst at the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that the development momentum of China's manufacturing industry has increased, and the trend of economic stabilization and recovery has become more apparent.
Sun Lijian, vice president of the School of Economics of Renmin University of China [microblogging] also told reporters that from the reasons of the rise in PMI, the economic situation in the later period is relatively optimistic.
Economic steady state is obvious
The reporter found that the five sub-indexes that make up PMI are higher than last month, especially the new order index rebounded for 2 consecutive months, to 52.4%, the highest point since 16 months, which is a strong support for the apparent recovery of manufacturing PMI this month. . At the same time, the production index was 52.6%, up 0.2 percentage points from July; the raw material inventory index was 48.0%, up 0.4 percentage points; the employee index was 49.3%, up 0.2 percentage points; the supplier delivery time index was 50.4%, In July, it rose by 0.3 percentage points.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that the current demand for manufacturing is increasing and the economy is biased. From the perspective of the rise in PMI, the economic situation in the later period is relatively optimistic. He believes that one of the reasons is that the external environment has improved beyond expectations, leading to changes in exports.
Data show that the new export orders index in August was 50.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from July, and it was the first time since April 2013 that it has risen above the critical point.
Zhao Qinghe believes that the recent series of measures to stabilize growth, adjust structure, promote reform, and benefit people's livelihood have stabilized social expectations and boosted market confidence. With the overall recovery of major macroeconomic data in July and the gradual improvement of the market environment, enterprises' confidence in future economic development is further enhanced.
Some people in the industry have analyzed that in the current economic situation, the economy will recover in the coming months with the reform of shantytowns, the acceleration of railway investment, the acceleration of urban infrastructure and IT infrastructure, and the tax reduction of small and micro enterprises. The pace will be further accelerated.
It is worth noting that while economic growth is stabilizing, the differentiation characteristics of business operations are particularly obvious. The PMI of small enterprises is 49.2%, which is below the critical point for 17 consecutive months, indicating that small enterprises have not yet emerged from the predicament.
Liu Xiahui, director of the Economic Growth Theory Office of the Institute of Economic Research of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that "the relatively large medium-sized enterprises, small and micro enterprises are relatively conservative, and the response to the economic warming is slower."
The steel industry is stabilizing
The reporter also learned from the Steel Professional Committee of the China Federation of Logistics Purchasing that the PMI index of the steel industry in August was 53.4%, up 0.9 percentage points from July. The steel industry showed a positive trend of stabilization and stability, mainly due to the decline in production, and the contradiction between supply and demand has been alleviated.
China Federation of Materials expects that as the economic situation improves, the demand for seasonal “Golden September and Silver 10†will increase, and the domestic steel market (3771, 17.00, 0.45%) is expected to develop steadily. However, the sharp increase in costs has further tightened the profit margins of steel companies.
It is worth mentioning that, unlike the manufacturing PMI with a critical point of 50%, the critical point of the PMI in the steel industry is determined to be 52%. Above 52%, the basic operating surface of the steel industry is good, and below 52% means There was a sign of shrinkage in steel operations.
China Resources said that with the recovery of the domestic economy, the national environmental protection policy, and the recovery of manufacturing in Europe and the United States, it is good for the current steel market. At present, as the weather turns better, the construction of downstream construction sites is accelerating. The market generally has good expectations for “Golden September and Silver 10â€. It is expected that the domestic steel market prices will continue to fluctuate upward.
China Federation of Materials also reminded that steel production capacity will continue to be released, supply pressure will increase, and the negative factors that restrict the rebound of steel prices cannot be ignored.
“September is the peak season for steel market demand. Although the space for steel prices continues to rise is relatively limited, the sharp fall is also a small probability event.†Qiu Yuecheng, an analyst at Xiben Shinkansen, told reporters.
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