In recent years, the "shale gas revolution" has erupted in the United States. As an unconventional oil and gas resource, the scale mining of shale gas in the United States has undoubtedly provided a new perspective for energy supply and energy replacement, which has aroused widespread concern in the world, especially in China, where oil and gas consumption is rising rapidly. The reason why the rapid increase in shale gas production in the United States is called the "shale gas revolution" is because it will not only change the US energy structure, but also affect the global energy landscape, and even related to the re-adjustment of the global economic order.
In the United States, commercial mining of shale gas dates back to 1821. However, it was not until the 1990s that hydraulic fracturing and horizontal well technology made breakthroughs that the shale gas industry prospered. In 2000, US shale gas production was 12.2 billion cubic meters, accounting for only 2.2% of total natural gas production. In 2010, US shale gas production reached 142.8 billion cubic meters, accounting for 23.3% of total natural gas production; in the past 10 years The average annual growth rate is over 25%. EIA predicts that US shale gas production will continue to maintain rapid growth in the future. It will reach 250 billion cubic meters in 2020, accounting for 36% of total natural gas production. In 2030, it will reach 380 billion cubic meters, accounting for about the total natural gas production. 49%.
Shale gas has enabled the United States to gradually realize its dream of "energy independence." At the beginning of the Obama administration, the Obama administration proposed the goal of “energy independence†and is committed to ensuring energy security. Although he hoped for the realization of this goal in new energy, shale gas brought him an unexpected surprise. The “shale gas revolution†has led to the initial realization of the goal of increasing energy self-sufficiency in the United States. Due to the scale replacement of shale gas, in 2011, the United States became a net exporter of fuel oil (4609, 0.00, 0.00%) and proposed a goal of achieving net energy exports in 2035. Recently, BP and Shell oil giants have submitted to the US government. File an application to seek export of US crude oil. In addition, due to the surge in shale gas production, the US price has remained low for a long time compared to the price of natural gas in other parts of the world. This has made it possible to crack down on producers' enthusiasm while making natural gas exports possible, although it has not yet been realized. In addition, shale gas will also optimize the US energy consumption structure, and the proportion of clean and efficient natural gas in the energy consumption structure is increasing. Although the United States does not play a role commensurate with its status in world climate change and environmental protection, shale gas will provide strong support for reducing emissions and increasing the right to suppress emissions. At the same time, in the context of the world economic crisis, the exploitation of shale gas provided an opportunity for the re-layout of the world oil and gas industry, and also created a large number of jobs attached to shale gas mining for the United States, and achieved “manufacturing reflow with the United Statesâ€. The strategic deployment coincides.
The realization of energy independence and even oil and gas exports in the United States will change the global energy landscape. The country most affected by the impact is the oil producing country. Most oil-producing countries have not established a real industrial system, but rely on the oil dollars exchanged for oil and gas resources to maintain economic growth and stability. Under the international oil market system in which oil is monopolized by the US dollar, in the context of the western financial market gradually leading the international crude oil price, the US oil and gas export has undoubtedly increased the weapon that restricts the relevant oil producing countries. For oil and gas consumers, US oil and gas exports will provide more sources of imports, which will help reduce import risks. Western European countries can reduce the import of expensive natural gas from Russia and switch to cheaper US LNG, which will provide another magic weapon for the United States to restrict Russia. As a major oil and gas consumer, China's oil and gas consumption still has great growth potential, so it is very likely to achieve import and export trade with the US oil and gas in the future. At the same time, due to the decline in dependence, the United States is bound to implement strategic contraction from the original oil importing regions such as the Middle East and North Africa to save huge military expenditures. While we are denounced the role of the "world police" everywhere in the United States, we have to admit that without the maintenance of American power, the possibility of maintaining stability in these oil-producing areas will be greatly reduced. When the United States implements strategic contraction from these regions, how the remaining structure develops and whether it can remain stable is particularly important for countries with oil and gas consumption that still depend on these oil-producing countries, especially China and India. In other words, the world's oil and gas geopolitics will be deeply affected by the independence of the US energy, and it is highly probable that unpredictable variables will occur.
The US shale gas export will also change the world natural gas market. At present, global crude oil production has remained at around 3.9 billion tons, which seems to have entered the “peak periodâ€; coal cannot meet the needs of climate change, and with a new round of “nuclear panicâ€, natural gas has become the inevitable pursuit of clean development. select. US shale gas exports will drive the development and utilization of natural gas in the world. We know that in 1974, the United States and the Middle East countries reached an agreement on "the use of oil in a single dollar." The oil dollar pricing has created the conditions for the globalization of the oil market and has become an important part of the dollar hegemony. Some oil-producing countries have suffered greatly. The world natural gas market is not unified, and the pricing power of natural gas is not clear. With the increasing importance of natural gas, the world natural gas market tends to unify the trend, especially in the LNG market. Some experts believe that LNG will become another global commodity after oil. In the process of harmonization of the world natural gas market, the competition for natural gas pricing currencies will also intensify, and the natural gas producer outside the United States offers the possibility of vying for pricing power. However, from the current point of view, the US dollar remains the most likely currency of valuation.
After the outbreak of the "shale gas revolution" in the United States, many countries in the world wanted to copy the miracle of the United States. The same is true of our country. However, simple "copying" is not easy. In addition to the breakthroughs and applications of key technologies, the success of the US “Shale Gas Revolution†has the following reasons: First, a fully competitive market environment. The United States has the most complete market economy system. A large number of small and medium-sized enterprises are allowed to freely conduct shale gas exploration and development, share investment costs and stimulate investment enthusiasm. Second, strong policy support. Various tax and fee reductions and fund support have reduced the industry's entry barriers; the third is the improved infrastructure. The huge pipe network creates favorable conditions for the transportation and consumption of shale gas. It cannot be ignored that since the beginning of the 21st century, the international oil price has entered a new round of ascending channels to create a good environment for the exploitation of shale gas.
China's "Shale Gas Development Plan (2011-2015)" (hereinafter referred to as "development plan") pointed out that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China should basically complete the evaluation of shale gas resources and achieve shale gas exploration by 2015. The geological reserves of Ming Dynasty reached 600 billion cubic meters, and the recoverable reserves are 200 billion cubic meters. The large-scale production of shale gas is achieved. In 2015, the output reached 6.5 billion cubic meters. After the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, China will increase investment to achieve double breakthrough in shale gas reserves and production, and strive to produce more than 60 billion cubic meters of shale gas by 2020. The "Development Plan" has drawn a good development prospect for China's shale gas industry. China can also learn from the development of the US shale gas industry, but it still faces many difficulties in recreating the "American miracle" of shale gas in China.
First of all, the total amount of shale gas resources in China has not yet been implemented. The “Global Shale Gas Initial Review†issued by EIA shows that China's shale gas technology recoverable resources are 36.1 trillion cubic meters, ranking first in the world; “Development Plan†believes that China's shale gas recoverable resources are 25 trillion cubic meters. More than conventional natural gas resources. Both estimates show that China has abundant shale gas resources. However, since China has not systematically carried out nationwide survey and evaluation of shale gas resources, the scientific nature of these resources is still not high. In addition, China's shale gas reservoirs are complex, resource storage conditions are poor, and are mostly distributed in areas with complex terrain, which brings great difficulty for resource understanding and mining, and also puts new tests for infrastructure construction.
Second, China's shale gas development lacks core technology. So far, China has only mastered the vertical well fracturing technology for shale gas exploration and development, and has not yet mastered the special techniques such as horizontal well fracturing, which directly restricts the development of shale gas industry. In addition, due to the difference in geological conditions, China must also develop shale gas development technology suitable for its geological conditions.
Third, China's shale gas market mechanism still needs further improvement. The entry of private capital into the shale gas industry is still difficult, and it is difficult for a small number of enterprises to ensure sufficient investment. The price of natural gas is under government control and is seriously underestimated. It is difficult to reflect the actual supply and demand relationship and has hampered the enthusiasm of enterprises to develop shale gas resources. The tax incentives for shale gas development are generally insufficient, and the lack of policies is more obvious.
Fourth, China's shale gas development is also facing environmental protection issues. Shale gas exploitation requires a large amount of water resources, and the potential areas of shale gas development in China are mostly concentrated in the arid and water-deficient Ordos Basin and Tuha Basin, which are very likely to cause water shortage. In addition, the lysate injected into the ground is very likely to pollute the groundwater, and a large amount of water injected into the shale layer may also cause the formation to slip and cause an earthquake. Because of this, shale gas mining in the United States has also been questioned by some environmentalists.
More and more people believe that the development of China's natural gas industry is entering a golden age.
However, this is only for conventional natural gas. We believe that China's natural gas industry must truly enter the golden age, and the scale of coal and oil should be replaced by the rapid development of unconventional natural gas. From the current point of view, China does not have a "shale gas revolution" similar to that of the United States, but it is always beneficial to have a rainy day, and it will be more than half the effort. The "shale gas revolution" of the United States was finally completed after many years of brewing; the development of China's coalbed methane industry is also a reality. As stated in the "Development Plan", during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the overall idea of ​​the development of China's shale gas industry is to lay the foundation. Only by laying a solid foundation, rationalizing relations, and scientific planning can we fully mobilize various resources and form a synergy of development to promote the shale gas industry to usher in a prosperous future.
In the United States, commercial mining of shale gas dates back to 1821. However, it was not until the 1990s that hydraulic fracturing and horizontal well technology made breakthroughs that the shale gas industry prospered. In 2000, US shale gas production was 12.2 billion cubic meters, accounting for only 2.2% of total natural gas production. In 2010, US shale gas production reached 142.8 billion cubic meters, accounting for 23.3% of total natural gas production; in the past 10 years The average annual growth rate is over 25%. EIA predicts that US shale gas production will continue to maintain rapid growth in the future. It will reach 250 billion cubic meters in 2020, accounting for 36% of total natural gas production. In 2030, it will reach 380 billion cubic meters, accounting for about the total natural gas production. 49%.
Shale gas has enabled the United States to gradually realize its dream of "energy independence." At the beginning of the Obama administration, the Obama administration proposed the goal of “energy independence†and is committed to ensuring energy security. Although he hoped for the realization of this goal in new energy, shale gas brought him an unexpected surprise. The “shale gas revolution†has led to the initial realization of the goal of increasing energy self-sufficiency in the United States. Due to the scale replacement of shale gas, in 2011, the United States became a net exporter of fuel oil (4609, 0.00, 0.00%) and proposed a goal of achieving net energy exports in 2035. Recently, BP and Shell oil giants have submitted to the US government. File an application to seek export of US crude oil. In addition, due to the surge in shale gas production, the US price has remained low for a long time compared to the price of natural gas in other parts of the world. This has made it possible to crack down on producers' enthusiasm while making natural gas exports possible, although it has not yet been realized. In addition, shale gas will also optimize the US energy consumption structure, and the proportion of clean and efficient natural gas in the energy consumption structure is increasing. Although the United States does not play a role commensurate with its status in world climate change and environmental protection, shale gas will provide strong support for reducing emissions and increasing the right to suppress emissions. At the same time, in the context of the world economic crisis, the exploitation of shale gas provided an opportunity for the re-layout of the world oil and gas industry, and also created a large number of jobs attached to shale gas mining for the United States, and achieved “manufacturing reflow with the United Statesâ€. The strategic deployment coincides.
The realization of energy independence and even oil and gas exports in the United States will change the global energy landscape. The country most affected by the impact is the oil producing country. Most oil-producing countries have not established a real industrial system, but rely on the oil dollars exchanged for oil and gas resources to maintain economic growth and stability. Under the international oil market system in which oil is monopolized by the US dollar, in the context of the western financial market gradually leading the international crude oil price, the US oil and gas export has undoubtedly increased the weapon that restricts the relevant oil producing countries. For oil and gas consumers, US oil and gas exports will provide more sources of imports, which will help reduce import risks. Western European countries can reduce the import of expensive natural gas from Russia and switch to cheaper US LNG, which will provide another magic weapon for the United States to restrict Russia. As a major oil and gas consumer, China's oil and gas consumption still has great growth potential, so it is very likely to achieve import and export trade with the US oil and gas in the future. At the same time, due to the decline in dependence, the United States is bound to implement strategic contraction from the original oil importing regions such as the Middle East and North Africa to save huge military expenditures. While we are denounced the role of the "world police" everywhere in the United States, we have to admit that without the maintenance of American power, the possibility of maintaining stability in these oil-producing areas will be greatly reduced. When the United States implements strategic contraction from these regions, how the remaining structure develops and whether it can remain stable is particularly important for countries with oil and gas consumption that still depend on these oil-producing countries, especially China and India. In other words, the world's oil and gas geopolitics will be deeply affected by the independence of the US energy, and it is highly probable that unpredictable variables will occur.
The US shale gas export will also change the world natural gas market. At present, global crude oil production has remained at around 3.9 billion tons, which seems to have entered the “peak periodâ€; coal cannot meet the needs of climate change, and with a new round of “nuclear panicâ€, natural gas has become the inevitable pursuit of clean development. select. US shale gas exports will drive the development and utilization of natural gas in the world. We know that in 1974, the United States and the Middle East countries reached an agreement on "the use of oil in a single dollar." The oil dollar pricing has created the conditions for the globalization of the oil market and has become an important part of the dollar hegemony. Some oil-producing countries have suffered greatly. The world natural gas market is not unified, and the pricing power of natural gas is not clear. With the increasing importance of natural gas, the world natural gas market tends to unify the trend, especially in the LNG market. Some experts believe that LNG will become another global commodity after oil. In the process of harmonization of the world natural gas market, the competition for natural gas pricing currencies will also intensify, and the natural gas producer outside the United States offers the possibility of vying for pricing power. However, from the current point of view, the US dollar remains the most likely currency of valuation.
After the outbreak of the "shale gas revolution" in the United States, many countries in the world wanted to copy the miracle of the United States. The same is true of our country. However, simple "copying" is not easy. In addition to the breakthroughs and applications of key technologies, the success of the US “Shale Gas Revolution†has the following reasons: First, a fully competitive market environment. The United States has the most complete market economy system. A large number of small and medium-sized enterprises are allowed to freely conduct shale gas exploration and development, share investment costs and stimulate investment enthusiasm. Second, strong policy support. Various tax and fee reductions and fund support have reduced the industry's entry barriers; the third is the improved infrastructure. The huge pipe network creates favorable conditions for the transportation and consumption of shale gas. It cannot be ignored that since the beginning of the 21st century, the international oil price has entered a new round of ascending channels to create a good environment for the exploitation of shale gas.
China's "Shale Gas Development Plan (2011-2015)" (hereinafter referred to as "development plan") pointed out that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China should basically complete the evaluation of shale gas resources and achieve shale gas exploration by 2015. The geological reserves of Ming Dynasty reached 600 billion cubic meters, and the recoverable reserves are 200 billion cubic meters. The large-scale production of shale gas is achieved. In 2015, the output reached 6.5 billion cubic meters. After the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, China will increase investment to achieve double breakthrough in shale gas reserves and production, and strive to produce more than 60 billion cubic meters of shale gas by 2020. The "Development Plan" has drawn a good development prospect for China's shale gas industry. China can also learn from the development of the US shale gas industry, but it still faces many difficulties in recreating the "American miracle" of shale gas in China.
First of all, the total amount of shale gas resources in China has not yet been implemented. The “Global Shale Gas Initial Review†issued by EIA shows that China's shale gas technology recoverable resources are 36.1 trillion cubic meters, ranking first in the world; “Development Plan†believes that China's shale gas recoverable resources are 25 trillion cubic meters. More than conventional natural gas resources. Both estimates show that China has abundant shale gas resources. However, since China has not systematically carried out nationwide survey and evaluation of shale gas resources, the scientific nature of these resources is still not high. In addition, China's shale gas reservoirs are complex, resource storage conditions are poor, and are mostly distributed in areas with complex terrain, which brings great difficulty for resource understanding and mining, and also puts new tests for infrastructure construction.
Second, China's shale gas development lacks core technology. So far, China has only mastered the vertical well fracturing technology for shale gas exploration and development, and has not yet mastered the special techniques such as horizontal well fracturing, which directly restricts the development of shale gas industry. In addition, due to the difference in geological conditions, China must also develop shale gas development technology suitable for its geological conditions.
Third, China's shale gas market mechanism still needs further improvement. The entry of private capital into the shale gas industry is still difficult, and it is difficult for a small number of enterprises to ensure sufficient investment. The price of natural gas is under government control and is seriously underestimated. It is difficult to reflect the actual supply and demand relationship and has hampered the enthusiasm of enterprises to develop shale gas resources. The tax incentives for shale gas development are generally insufficient, and the lack of policies is more obvious.
Fourth, China's shale gas development is also facing environmental protection issues. Shale gas exploitation requires a large amount of water resources, and the potential areas of shale gas development in China are mostly concentrated in the arid and water-deficient Ordos Basin and Tuha Basin, which are very likely to cause water shortage. In addition, the lysate injected into the ground is very likely to pollute the groundwater, and a large amount of water injected into the shale layer may also cause the formation to slip and cause an earthquake. Because of this, shale gas mining in the United States has also been questioned by some environmentalists.
More and more people believe that the development of China's natural gas industry is entering a golden age.
However, this is only for conventional natural gas. We believe that China's natural gas industry must truly enter the golden age, and the scale of coal and oil should be replaced by the rapid development of unconventional natural gas. From the current point of view, China does not have a "shale gas revolution" similar to that of the United States, but it is always beneficial to have a rainy day, and it will be more than half the effort. The "shale gas revolution" of the United States was finally completed after many years of brewing; the development of China's coalbed methane industry is also a reality. As stated in the "Development Plan", during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the overall idea of ​​the development of China's shale gas industry is to lay the foundation. Only by laying a solid foundation, rationalizing relations, and scientific planning can we fully mobilize various resources and form a synergy of development to promote the shale gas industry to usher in a prosperous future.
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