Distributed photovoltaic 8GW target can be completed this year

At the National Energy Work Conference held on January 14, 2014, the National Energy Administration has finalized a new installed capacity of 14GW for domestic photovoltaic power stations in 2014. The distribution ratio of 14GW is: distributed photovoltaics account for 60%, about 8GW, and about 6GW of ground-based photovoltaic power stations.

From April to April, many companies and media in the industry have spoken out: The installation of distributed photovoltaics in 2014 was “an impossible task”. On the contrary, after the media industry of the photovoltaic industry studied, they expressed different voices: “China's distributed photovoltaic 8GW in 2014 can be completed through hard work!”

I. The leading policy country has made it clear

The Letter of the State Council on the Soliciting Opinions on the Scale of Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2013 and 2014 (hereinafter referred to as the “Opinion Letter”) proposed that in 2014, photovoltaic power generation construction will be carried out without the occurrence of curtailment and power cuts. The scale will increase from the original plan of 10GW to 12GW, of which distributed photovoltaic projects will reach 8GW, "Distributed photovoltaic power generation project's electricity price subsidy standard is set at 0.42 yuan per kilowatt-hour."

It was consistent with the original intention of the management that the “distributed photovoltaic ratio has rapidly increased from 30% in 2013 to nearly 67%”, giving a subsidy of 0.42 yuan/kWh for distributed photovoltaic power generation, clearly demonstrating that policy makers “encourage distributed It also emphasizes strategic ideas for encouraging self-motivation. According to internal sources of the National Energy Board, new plans for distributed photovoltaic supplementation policies will be introduced in April or May of this year. The new distributed photovoltaic policy will largely eliminate the concerns and doubts of photovoltaic power plant investors.

Second, foreign experience tells us that the mainstream of photovoltaic power plants will be distributed

Distributed photovoltaic has a large space for development. Photovoltaic power generation has become the new darling of the new energy industry in Europe and the United States. At present, more than 70% of the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the world is concentrated in the EU, and most of them are rooftop photovoltaic systems.

In Germany, for example, 80% of Germany's photovoltaic power generation projects are distributed. According to the photovoltaic power generation development plans of EU member states, by 2020, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the EU will reach 84 million kilowatts, which means at least 3.6 million kilowatts will be added each year in the next 9 years. Due to the limited idle land resources in Europe, in the future, photovoltaic power generation will mainly be based on distributed rooftop photovoltaic systems.

Third, the domestic actual situation will also promote distributed photovoltaic

At present, China's photovoltaic power stations are mainly large-scale ground power stations. From the perspective of the domestic market for photovoltaic applications, the newly-added domestic PV installation capacity and cumulative installed capacity are mainly concentrated on large-scale ground power stations. In 2011, China’s new large-scale ground power stations accounted for the new installed capacity. 88% of the total new installed capacity, and in 2013, the new installed capacity of large-scale terrestrial power stations was 7.91GW, accounting for 70% of the total newly installed capacity.

However, large-scale ground power station sites are mostly centralized large-scale photovoltaic ground power stations located in the west. The distribution of energy supply and demand in China is already extremely uneven. Eighty percent of the country's available hydropower/coal resources are located in the western part of the country. The western part of the country enjoys abundant sunshine. However, the industrial bases are located in the eastern/central region. Even the west consumes its own water and electricity, so how can it consume photovoltaic power? Only rely on long-distance transmission from West to East. The construction period is long, the investment is huge, the transmission line loss is huge, and the remote water is difficult to quench thirst. The direct consequence of the problem is that it is difficult for the West to be fully connected to the Internet, and it is impossible to guarantee full power generation on the Internet. Many power stations are required to generate electricity only every other day and the phenomenon of abandoned light is serious. The decentralized/distributed roof development method is used to generate electricity on-site in the industrial area and use it for self-use, reducing the dependence and impact on the power grid. The subsidy policies in Europe and the United States have long been adjusted, and they tend to encourage distributed rooftop PV systems. Isn't the purpose of power generation to use electricity?

Fourth, financial support will fully promote the development of distributed photovoltaics

On August 22, 2013, the National Energy Administration of the People's Republic of China and China National Development Bank Co., Ltd. issued the "Opinions on Supporting Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Financial Services." This document has been issued to the Development and Reform Commission and Energy of the provinces and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps. Bureau and China Development Bank. China Development Bank supports all types of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects built and operated by “self-use, excess grid access, and power grid regulation”, focusing on the new energy demonstration cities, green energy counties, and distributed photovoltaic power generation application demonstration zones constructed by the state organizations. It will launch pilot projects for innovative financial services, establish institutions for investment cooperation with local governments, and provide financial services for distributed photovoltaic power generation projects.

Accompanied by the support of national policies, the first domestic investment in photovoltaic power plants, jointly initiated by the International Energy Research Institute of the International Cooperation Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, 365 Photovoltaic Power Station Network, and Healing Capital, is “China Guolin Photovoltaic Industry Investment**”. If the establishment of this ** is successful, it will be able to leverage the investment of photovoltaic power plants by several hundred billion yuan***, opening up a new era for 2014 China's distributed photovoltaic construction.

V. Distributed photovoltaic needs innovative thinking and boldness

However, at present, there are not many success stories of distributed photovoltaics in China. The business model of distributed generation is not yet mature and there are many potential risk points. What we are worried about right now is not a technical problem. It is more sensitive to the market and not sensitive to seize opportunities. Opportunities are not waiting for people. Good policies will move with the camera.

The 2014 China PV Investment and Finance Summit to be held in Beijing Jingxi Hotel on April 16th and 17th will go through China's distributed PV one-stop solution process briefing, PV power plant financial product analysis release, successful company experience sharing, project investment ** Matchmaking, new energy demonstration cities, distributed promotion, ranking of powerful companies, etc., took the lead in promoting the construction of photovoltaic power plants in 2014, using brainstorming and solid implementation measures to promote the healthy, long-term development of China's photovoltaic power plant industry. Orderly development.