I. Review of the weekly trend of the machinery industry
The market continued to fluctuate this week, and the Shanghai Composite Index [2903.69 -0.11%] fell by 0.92%. The mechanical sector also fluctuated with the market, and the final sector performed better than the Shanghai Composite Index. In the interior of the plate, instrumentation, special equipment, and ordinary mechanical plates perform relatively well. In the ordinary mechanical sector, the performance of refrigeration and air-conditioning equipment and abrasive abrasive plates is quite outstanding; machine tools, internal combustion engines and other general machinery sectors have also outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index; in the special equipment sector, construction machinery and printing and packaging machinery sectors The performance was excellent, while the heavy machinery and mining metallurgical equipment sectors performed poorly. However, from the inside of the sector, the performance of these two sectors was dragged down by large-cap stocks. The Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan was a heavy one for China [5.80] The stock price of 1.05%] and double reloading [12.26 1.49%] has had a big impact.
In terms of valuation, as of March 18, 2011, the overall PE (2010E, overall method) of the machinery industry was 34.28 times, and the overall PB was 5.58 times (the third quarter of 2010, the overall law). This week, the market has adjusted as we expected, although it showed signs of rebound on Friday. Is this week’s adjustment and shock just the impact of the earthquake in Japan? Is the earthquake and nuclear power crisis in Japan the main factor for adjustment, or is it the last straw to crush the camel? The increase in the deposit reserve ratio on Friday made a good footnote for the market. Although there are some measures that are considered to be worried about the inflow of the yen, it is also possible to see the pressure of inflation and the determination to regulate. In the context of the liquidity contraction and the decline in profits of the real economy enterprises, the market does not support the bull market, nor does it support a strong rebound. The short-term outbreak is always due to calm. The current situation can be regarded as unclear. Even if it rebounds, how big is the upward space? And under the background of continuous shrinking liquidity, how big is the downward space? Calculating the expected returns and risks, the current aggressive strategy is more similar to the fire. Therefore, we are still cautious. From the perspective of the machinery industry itself, we are still concerned about structural opportunities. We are concerned about the stocks with relatively clear performance growth and relatively low valuations in the industry. We can focus on Zhang Huaji [37.13 1.14%] (002564). In the short-term, affected by the nuclear accident in Japan, it is a better choice to evade the nuclear power sector. Construction machinery, although we mentioned in the weekly report last week that the earthquake in Japan is good for the types of construction machinery such as excavators, but after a short period of fever, we need to calmly observe and think about the Japanese construction machinery parts for the domestic Construction machinery manufacturers are of great significance. Engines, pumps and hydraulic components are the core components. The impact of earthquakes on the construction machinery industry needs further observation. It is not excluded that there will be any situation affecting the domestic machine production. Therefore, it is necessary to be cautious about the construction machinery sector. optimism.
Second, industry and company dynamic tracking
1. The State Council announced the "adjustment of nuclear power planning and suspension of nuclear power new project decisions"
2. Mechanical and electrical products import promotion strategy release
3. The basic preparation of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†for offshore engineering equipment is completed.
4. Review of important dynamics of listed companies in the week
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