On November 9, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its annual flagship report “World Energy Outlook 2011†(WEO 2011), which provided the latest energy needs of different countries, different fuels, and different industries in different scenarios over the next 25 years. And supply forecasts.
The report is based on a rigorous quantitative analysis of energy and climate trends and evaluates the opportunities and opportunities faced by the global energy system. The analysis includes three global scenario new policy scenarios, current policy scenarios, 450 scenarios, and multiple case studies. The current policy scenario assumes that as of mid-2011 no new policies will be introduced. The comparison between the results of the new policy scenario and the current policy scenario illustrates the value of these commitments and plans. The 450 scenario was introduced from the perspective of limiting the long-term rise in global average temperature to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The purpose was to find a practical way to achieve this goal. The core scenario of the analysis is the new policy scenario. This scenario assumes that the government’s recent policy commitments will be carefully implemented even if it lacks effective and effective measures.
The energy industry's hot issues that the report is particularly focused on this year include: Russia's energy development prospects and its impact on the global market; in a restricted-emissions world, coal drives economic growth; Middle East and North Africa oil and gas industry investment may be Impact of delays; if “locking in†high carbon infrastructure may make the 2°C climate change target more expensive and challenging; fossil fuel subsidies and support for renewable energy and its impact on energy, economy and the environment Impact of development trends; “Low-nuclear scenarios†investigate the impact of the slowdown in the use of nuclear energy on global energy patterns; and provide the various investment scales required for modern energy for billions of poor people who have not yet used modern energy.
The report pointed out that despite the uncertainty of the short-term global economic outlook, energy demand under the new policy scenario will continue to grow rapidly, and will increase by 1/3 from 2010 to 2035. The pattern of the energy market is increasingly determined by countries outside the OECD: between 2010 and 2035, non-OECD countries accounted for 90% of population growth, 70% of economic output, and 90 percent of energy demand growth. %. China will consolidate its status as the world’s largest energy consumer. By 2035, China’s energy consumption will be nearly 70% higher than the US’s energy consumption, the second-largest energy consumer (see chart). Even so, China’s per capita energy consumption will still be less than half that of the United States. Energy consumption growth in India, the Middle East, and Brazil is even faster than China.
The era of fossil fuels is far from over, but its dominant position has declined. Demand for all fuels is rising, but the share of fossil fuels in global primary energy consumption will fall slightly from 81% in 2010 to 75% in 2035: By 2035, natural gas is the only one in the world. Increased proportion of fossil fuels in the energy mix. In the power industry, renewable energy technologies based on hydropower and wind power will account for half of the newly installed capacity required to meet growing demand.
Between 2011 and 2035, global energy supply infrastructure investment required US$38 trillion (in 2010 dollars). About two-thirds of the total investment is in countries other than OECD. The total investment in oil and gas will be nearly 20 trillion U.S. dollars, and in the medium to long term, upstream investment demand and associated costs will increase. The rest is dominated by the power industry, of which more than 40% of the investment will be used for transmission and distribution network construction.
The report is based on a rigorous quantitative analysis of energy and climate trends and evaluates the opportunities and opportunities faced by the global energy system. The analysis includes three global scenario new policy scenarios, current policy scenarios, 450 scenarios, and multiple case studies. The current policy scenario assumes that as of mid-2011 no new policies will be introduced. The comparison between the results of the new policy scenario and the current policy scenario illustrates the value of these commitments and plans. The 450 scenario was introduced from the perspective of limiting the long-term rise in global average temperature to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The purpose was to find a practical way to achieve this goal. The core scenario of the analysis is the new policy scenario. This scenario assumes that the government’s recent policy commitments will be carefully implemented even if it lacks effective and effective measures.
The energy industry's hot issues that the report is particularly focused on this year include: Russia's energy development prospects and its impact on the global market; in a restricted-emissions world, coal drives economic growth; Middle East and North Africa oil and gas industry investment may be Impact of delays; if “locking in†high carbon infrastructure may make the 2°C climate change target more expensive and challenging; fossil fuel subsidies and support for renewable energy and its impact on energy, economy and the environment Impact of development trends; “Low-nuclear scenarios†investigate the impact of the slowdown in the use of nuclear energy on global energy patterns; and provide the various investment scales required for modern energy for billions of poor people who have not yet used modern energy.
The report pointed out that despite the uncertainty of the short-term global economic outlook, energy demand under the new policy scenario will continue to grow rapidly, and will increase by 1/3 from 2010 to 2035. The pattern of the energy market is increasingly determined by countries outside the OECD: between 2010 and 2035, non-OECD countries accounted for 90% of population growth, 70% of economic output, and 90 percent of energy demand growth. %. China will consolidate its status as the world’s largest energy consumer. By 2035, China’s energy consumption will be nearly 70% higher than the US’s energy consumption, the second-largest energy consumer (see chart). Even so, China’s per capita energy consumption will still be less than half that of the United States. Energy consumption growth in India, the Middle East, and Brazil is even faster than China.
The era of fossil fuels is far from over, but its dominant position has declined. Demand for all fuels is rising, but the share of fossil fuels in global primary energy consumption will fall slightly from 81% in 2010 to 75% in 2035: By 2035, natural gas is the only one in the world. Increased proportion of fossil fuels in the energy mix. In the power industry, renewable energy technologies based on hydropower and wind power will account for half of the newly installed capacity required to meet growing demand.
Between 2011 and 2035, global energy supply infrastructure investment required US$38 trillion (in 2010 dollars). About two-thirds of the total investment is in countries other than OECD. The total investment in oil and gas will be nearly 20 trillion U.S. dollars, and in the medium to long term, upstream investment demand and associated costs will increase. The rest is dominated by the power industry, of which more than 40% of the investment will be used for transmission and distribution network construction.
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