More than half of cement companies have exceeded 50% in 2012.

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission disclosed that the national cement production in 2011 was 2.063 billion tons. In 2011, the profits of the cement industry are expected to exceed 100 billion yuan and the profit per ton has reached nearly 50 yuan. According to wind information, of the 17 cement listed companies that have reported ahead, 12 companies have increased by more than 50%.

According to public information, China's cement industry will overcapacity its overall capacity in 2012. At the same time, due to the slowdown in demand, cement prices will also face downward pressure.

On February 1, some analysts stated that it is expected that the net profit of the cement industry will decline in 2012 and the second quarter will be a low point. Specific to each region, the northwest and east China will not be too good because of their higher starting points; the northeast region may be better; and the southwest region will not be very good.

In response, Guo Zaiwen, a securities affairs representative of Chaodong Securities, said that due to the overall macro situation is not very optimistic, the company can expect competition in 2012 will be more intense, and the company will strengthen management to deal with competition.

"Volume and price rise" industry profits exceeded 100 billion 12 listed companies increased by more than 50% According to the National Development and Reform Commission, in 2011 the national cement output was 2.063 billion tons, an increase of 16.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.6% higher than the same period; the cement price was The rising trend, the first 11 months of 2011, the cement industry profits 93.3 billion yuan, an increase of 92.6%, an increase of 58 percentage points. And if you add profits in December, the cement industry will exceed 100 billion yuan in profits in 2011, and the profit will reach nearly 50 yuan.

According to wind information, Shenwan Cement has a total of 21 companies in the cement manufacturing industry, among which except for Jidong Cement (000401, stocks), the net profit growth rate is as high as 1313.44% to 1448.63%.

When interviewed by the media, China Cement Association President Lei Qianzhi said in an interview with the media that China’s cement production in 2011 was nearly 2.1 billion tons, not only the fastest growth rate, but also a large increase, which made it incredible for all cement workers in China and in the world. . From the perspective of industry efficiency, the profit of the cement industry this year has reached 10 billion yuan, and the profit per ton is close to 50 yuan. Both the total profit and the ton profit are good years since the founding of the People's Republic of China.

Many researchers also said that the overall performance of the cement industry in 2011 was good and in line with expectations.

Some analysts indicated that in 2011, the cement demand was higher than expected, and 10 million sets of affordable housing were started on a large scale. Although the investment in commercial housing declined but the speed was lower than expected, the demand for cement in urban housing exceeded part of the forecast, but it was in the “7.23 EMU accident”. After that, infrastructure construction, especially railway construction, experienced a rapid decline.

The overall overcapacity 2012 price downward pressure?

However, the Development and Reform Commission also revealed that at the end of December 2011, the cement stocks of key building materials companies also reached 10.42 million tons, up by 20.3% year-on-year.

In the face of 2012, will the days of the cement industry be so good? Or will usher in the adjustment cycle?

China Cement Association vice president and secretary-general Kong Xiangzhong told the media on January 30th that in 2011, the total volume of cement in China's cement industry was overcapacity.

Monita's research report on the cement industry on January 4 showed that most cement plants believe that the growth of the industry in 2012 will be slower than in 2011, and the growth forecast is mostly concentrated in the 5-10% range. A small number of cement plants are even more pessimistic. They believe that the zero or even negative growth in the fundamentals of the industry in 2012.

Tianxiang Investment Co., Ltd. January 30th: The building and building materials industry weekly report believes that from the demand side, due to the slowdown of both infrastructure and real estate investment in 2011, the demand for cement has weakened correspondingly. From the aspect of production capacity, with the rapid development of fixed asset investment in recent years, the investment in the cement industry has also reached a peak. The capacity expansion rate is much higher than the growth rate of demand, causing the issue of overcapacity to become more and more prominent; in particular, high investment in the first two years. The new production capacity brought about by the concentrated release, the overall, national surplus began to show. Looking ahead to 2012, if there are no major fluctuations in the economic situation at home and abroad, the overall cement demand will continue to grow, but the growth rate will decline significantly compared with 2011.

In January 31, the China Building Materials Industry Report of Huatai United Union stated that it is still cautious about the industry trend: if the macro-control policy is not greatly adjusted, in 2012, infrastructure and real estate investment will further weaken, cement demand growth may slow down, and The scale of new production capacity exceeds expectations, and the economic climate of the cement industry under the dual pressure may slow down. It is still necessary to continue to observe whether the construction of social housing can reverse this downward trend.

In the 2012 annual strategy of China Cement's cement industry, it is expected that investment in fixed assets in the cement industry will continue to decline by 15% and 10% respectively in 2012 and 2013. In 2012, the prosperity of the cement industry was low and high. The supply and demand conditions in Northeast China, North China, and South China tend to be good. The concentration in East China and Central China is high and the market is in a stable and cooperative manner. It is expected that the supply and demand in the three regions of Northeast China (Haiji Liao), North China (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei) and South China (Guangdong-Guangxi) will improve significantly in 2012. It is expected that the price in the northeast region will increase by 8%, in North China and South China by 2-3%. Prices in eastern China will fall by 3-5% year-on-year, while those in the northwest will fall by 5-10% year-on-year.

A summary of the meeting of the Bank of China Cement Industry Risk and Prospects 2012 stated that it is expected that the annual growth rate of cement demand during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period will fall from a compound growth rate of around 12% during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period to a level of 3%-4%. Although the cement production line under construction has been gradually reduced, under the condition of insufficient demand, the overcapacity will continue to increase in 2012. By the end of 2012, the number of new dry process production lines in China is expected to reach more than 1,600. There is a large downward pressure on cement prices. Stabilizing regional cement prices through price synergies and mergers and acquisitions will be the future direction of the industry.

An insider of the cement industry told China Capital Securities Net that the current price of cement due to the 11th Five-Year Plan for Energy Saving and Emission Reduction has been at a high level since October 2010, and many companies are still expanding their production capacity, and the supply is seriously greater than the demand. It is not obvious now because of the limited production limit. At the same time, this kind of policy is not permanent, and it is abnormal to exchange prices at a low operating rate. Considering that the scale of future infrastructure projects will undoubtedly become smaller and smaller, the growth of the cement industry is not optimistic.

On February 1, some analysts predicted that the prosperity of the entire cement industry will inevitably decline in 2012. In the short-term, there will be a volatility. In the long-term, the trend is not very good.

On the same day, an analyst of an unnamed brokerage firm also stated that it is expected that the net profit of the industry will decline in 2012 and the second quarter will be a low point. Specific to each region, the northwest and east China will not be too good because of their higher starting points; the northeast region may be better; and the southwest region will not be very good.

In response, Tian Shanlin (000877, stock bar) Securities Affairs Representative Zhou Jianlin said on February 1, the company believes that the East China region does have an impact, but the company's business is mainly in the Xinjiang region, and the company is still very confident in the Xinjiang region.

The enterprise calmly views the hidden dangers of “the strictest in history” in addition to excess production capacity and lower prices. The cement industry is also facing a severe review by the environmental protection department.

Recently, some media reported that the Ministry of Environmental Protection is currently studying the nitrogen oxide emission standards for the cement industry, which is called the “stiffest in history” policy.

Kong Xiangzhong, vice president and secretary-general of the China Cement Association, once told the media that the industry's emission of nitrogen oxides has increased from 800 milligrams to 400 milligrams per cubic meter. For enterprises, the cost per ton of cement may increase by around 20 yuan.

For the nitrogen oxide emissions standards will be revised news, Tianshan Zhou Jianlin told China Capital Securities Network that the country's policies and regulations also need to consider the situation of the entire industry. The company has done a good job in energy conservation, technological transformation, and elimination of outdated production capacity. The projects that were added recently have all received environmental approvals.

And Guo Zaiwen, a representative of Chaodong Securities, said that due to the overall macro situation is not very optimistic, the company can expect competition in 2012 will be more intense, the company will strengthen management to deal with competition. For the nitrogen oxide emissions standards will be revised news, Guo Zaiwen believes that the impact on the company is not great.

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