Sinochem New Network News On September 17th, at the “Second Qingdao Natural Rubber International Forum” sponsored by the People’s Government of Qingdao and organized by the South China People’s Government and Beitebu, the industry believes that the global natural rubber production is difficult in the short term. With breakthroughs and increasing rigid demand, natural rubber prices are expected to hit new highs next year.

Domestic demand increased steadily

Zhu Xiuyan, president of the China National Natural Rubber Association, said that since 2003, China has become the world's largest consumer and importer of natural rubber. Consumption in recent years is increasing at a rate of about 10% per year. In 2009, China's natural rubber (including natural rubber containing more than 95% of the composite rubber), the demand reached 3.39 million tons, ranking first in the world.

Zhu Xiuyan said that from the perspective of this year's situation, after entering the second quarter, China’s economy has experienced a recovery growth. Although the price of rubber has fluctuate frequently and the circulation of products has slowed down, the total consumption still increases on the basis of last year. China's natural rubber consumption from January to May this year has increased by 28% over the same period of last year.

"Since the second half of the year, procurement trade has become more frequent and a rapid growth trend is expected. It is expected that China's natural rubber consumption will reach 350-3.6 million tons this year, and the corresponding natural rubber imports will be about 285-2.9 million tons. About 4% more than the same period last year, said Zhu Xiuyan.

Fan Rende, chairman of the China Rubber Industry Association, believes that with the establishment of a global economic recovery, it is expected that the demand for rubber in China will continue to increase steadily next year.

Fan Rende said that in the future, the increase in demand for rubber in China will be mainly reflected in the increase in the export of rubber products and the increase in the consumption of rubber products. According to data released by the Chinese government in the first half of 2010, under the circumstances of the international financial crisis and the frequent occurrence of trade frictions, the total output value of China's rubber industry still showed a large increase compared to the same period in 2009. Only the total output of tire companies increased by 10%. Provides a guarantee for the export of large quantities of Chinese rubber products. Among them, the tire export volume increased by 40% year-on-year. As for the consumption of rubber products, with the continued improvement of infrastructure such as high-speed railways, highways, and airports in China, the demand for related rubber products such as tires and rubber hoses will continue to increase. It is expected that there will be more than 20% growth next year. .

Fan Rende said that because the Chinese market is vast and has great potential, coupled with the government’s continued implementation of activities such as automobiles and motorcycles to the countryside, it will further boost the domestic market’s demand for various rubber products.

Natural rubber supply is tight and the price is bullish

Wang Weibo, general manager of Shanghai Yingjin Investment Co., Ltd., stated that “China's tire casing production and vehicle output are in a steady state of growth from 2005 to 2010.” At present, the supply and demand of rubber in the world maintain a balance. However, with the rapid increase in demand for automobiles in the Asia-Pacific region, including China, as well as India, there is great opportunity for rubber prices to continue to rise.

Wang Weibo said that China's rubber consumption has maintained a rigid growth, even exceeding the GDP growth rate. However, the external dependence of rubber in China exceeds 60%. Statistics show that China's natural rubber imports have increased year-on-year from 2006 to 2010. After 2008, the area of ​​cuts in Thailand and Malaysia has been declining. From this trend, the balance of supply and demand for rubber in the world will be broken, and it is not difficult to increase the price of rubber.

The former Secretary-General of the International Rubber Research Organization Schmidt told the China Securities Journal that because of the tight supply, natural rubber prices are expected to hit new heights next year. Schmidt said that "from the current supply and demand and price analysis, 2010 needs to exceed demand, so the price is high, it is expected that demand will still be much higher than supply in 2011, so I think the price of plastic next year will still appear new highs."