Photovoltaic development policy is the king

The current photovoltaic industry is worth noting a major phenomenon: policy intensity is unparalleled, and the market is still unsatisfactory. The reasons for this are worth pondering. The “last 100 meters” problem of solving the policy is already a cliché, and letting the photovoltaic policy land, blossom, and result is the king.

Two manifestations of policy not landing:

One is that photovoltaic distributed development has hardly ideal results in the short term. This is the most concentrated expression of policy fever and cold market. From the mid-2013 revision of the layout, by 2014, 14% of the 14GW terminal market construction target has been distributed. The country's strategy to encourage the transfer of photovoltaic power generation to the load center is clear and policies are frequent. However, in reality, it is generally difficult for the industry to be optimistic about this construction result that is in line with the economic laws and meets the development direction of mature countries' experience. The author believes that this may also be an inevitable result. If it is forcibly promoted, its negative effects will emerge in the future.

One is the failure of the financial market. As a photovoltaic industry researcher with nearly 20 years of experience in the securities industry, in the eyes of the author, the photovoltaic industry is full of opportunities in the financial market, but in reality, the investment problem has become the biggest problem for competitive photovoltaic companies. You can't see the positive financial institutions, lack of means, and weak market. For example, industrial products, high-yield bonds, asset securitization, and other financial products, regardless of the establishment of laws and policies, or the huge market demand, have already fulfilled the prerequisites for their function. By the end of the last window paper, they will break. At that time, many financial institutions, however, still hold out the old-fashioned thinking that will not be considered as long as they involve photovoltaics, or they may simply ignore the difficult products of photovoltaic financial products.

A brief analysis of the reasons for the two performances:

The current core issue that restricts the distributed development of photovoltaic power generation is that multiple risks exceed the certainty of returns. For photovoltaic distributed power plant investors, can they grab the roof in the fierce competition? What is the ownership status of the roof? What is the useful life of the roof? What are the technical costs of rooftop power stations? What is the credit and operating status of the electricity payment company? After the completion of the grid situation? How is the implementation of subsidized electricity prices after grid-connected power generation? The existence of multiple risk factors is realistic, and it is difficult for a single company to control. The uncontrollability of investment risks makes the unsatisfactory investment results become inevitable, and the unsatisfactory implementation of policies also becomes inevitable.

The photovoltaic financial market elements need to be improved. Capital's profit is unscrupulous. When the wealth effect occurs, the capital's entry is scrambling. At present, the non-prosperity of the photovoltaic financial market stems largely from such aspects as: First, the social ** has not formed a correct understanding of the photovoltaic industry, and more still stays in the photovoltaic industry with pollution and serious oversupply errors. Understanding stage. The fact is that international authoritative agencies have clearly calculated the conversion ratio of pollution and clean power generation at the PV manufacturing stage to 2:25 years. At the same time, the global PV production capacity is 60 GW. This year's total global demand may reach more than 45 GW. Supply and demand are being accelerated and reasonable. Second, the nature of capital is to purchase the future. The obstacles to the issuance of financial products are worth exploring. For example, in the current financial product issuance regulations, the issuer must be required to achieve continuous profitability for the first three years without exception. It is known to all that the photovoltaic industry in the first three years is under severe industrial integration. Whether it can combine the actual situation of the photovoltaic industry to formulate an effective financial product issuance offer is the key; Third, the policy guidance is not in place. For example, large-scale ** and old-age pensions have remained indifferent to investment in photovoltaic terminal markets with stable returns. In fact, this is no longer a problem of investment analysis, but a problem that requires the country to guide them.

With regard to the above issues, when talking with some investment experts about the solution, it is often said that things in China are difficult to handle. The author believes that in the face of the difficulties in the development of the photovoltaic industry, it should not stop there. The problem of complete marketization of the industry, market-based solutions, and the problem of non-fully market-oriented industries should play a more active role. The photovoltaic industry is a non-completely marketized industry. The implementation of the policy is not in place, but it must be resolved through more detailed policies. Fortunately, the above issues are not insurmountable issues in the current industrial environment. The process of solving these problems is the process of landing the photovoltaic policy. Accelerating this process makes the country’s role indispensable. The specific recommendations are as follows:

First, in terms of guiding ideology, the state should be a kind of reform and innovation management thinking. The fact that market forces cannot break through is often attributed to the fact that the industrial environment is not perfect and policies are one of the important means to speed up the improvement. If policies do not accelerate, it is because policies lack innovation. Focusing on the investment and financing needs of the photovoltaic industry, relevant management departments should have an innovative mindset. For example, the state can provide a large number of financial support policies for innovative companies. The starting point is to focus on future benefits. In the same way, why can not photovoltaic companies with scale and future deterministic benefits issue investment and financing products with the same thinking? It is precisely because of China's too many things, Xiao Zheng Cao followed the established guidelines, so that the new government will mention reforms again. What is reform? Just copying the existing financial products regulations is not called reform, combined with the unlimited prospects of China's photovoltaic industry terminal market, and for profitable financial companies with visible profit expectations, breaking through the conventions and formulating measures that are in line with the actual situation will be called reform.

Second, policy refinement and policy adjustment are necessary. For example, for photovoltaic companies issuing financial products, on the basis of breaking the three consecutive years of profitable thinking, allowing companies to improve their issuance conditions by thinking of increasing guarantees for future earnings; for example, the pattern of charging electricity to users by distributed power station investors. Whether or not it can increase the protection factor of the investor's electricity revenue by increasing the other administrative or market restraint mechanisms. Not long ago, the author learned that a large state-owned bank, when providing photovoltaic services to investors of photovoltaic power plants, used the special fund management relationship between the bank and photovoltaic power generation users to restrict payment of electricity charges on schedule in order to ensure the normal operation of trading activities. This case illustrates that as long as the relevant government agencies conduct in-depth investigation and research, it is not difficult to find a solution.

Third, strengthen the correct guidance of society. If there is no revolutionary change, photovoltaic power generation is the most competitive new energy source. Not long ago, the National Energy Director Wu Xinxiong proposed that by 2020, photovoltaic power generation should achieve user-side parity access. To achieve this, the increasing cost competitiveness of products and the continuous improvement of the industrial environment are very important. It is also very important for consumers to learn more about the photovoltaic industry and to fully understand the significance of photovoltaic clean energy. Photovoltaic power generation has had an important impact on the increase of electricity tariffs in Germany, but most consumers in Germany agree that they do not agree with the price, but that they recognize the value of photovoltaic power generation to protect the environment. It is necessary to produce photovoltaic power generation that can be used by ordinary people, but also to cultivate people's awareness that the use of photovoltaic power generation is contributing to the elimination of haze. It is a manifestation of the pursuit of fashion. ** The environment is good, and the financial environment will naturally be good.

We believe that as long as the policy is in place, the market's power is beyond imagination. The demand for finance to serve the public has been long, but the actual effect is not ideal. The appearance of Yu'ebao has become the largest in the half-year of a company with the smallest funds management. At the same time, China’s public financial services have entered an unstoppable situation. The era. It is believed that photovoltaic power generation will also be another situation, accompanied by more landing of photovoltaic policies.