Refined oil prices are expected to be lowered later this month

Recently, the international oil price has continued to fluctuate and decline, and the rate of change in the three countries has been turned down. According to data monitoring, as of March 8, the rate of change in the three regions has reached -1.24%. If the international oil prices in the latter period remain slightly concussive, the rate of change in the three places will be expected to fall below -4% on March 22. When the "22 working days" adjustment requirement is met on March 26th, the window of the NDRC's price cuts for refined oil products will be officially opened.

Expected to cut 250-300 yuan / ton According to forecast, the refined oil price reduction is about 250-300 yuan / ton.

Since mid-February, international oil prices have continued to oscillate downwards.

Analyst Han Jingyuan said that the recent international crude oil prices have continued to fall due to a number of negative factors, resulting in a negative shift in crude oil prices in the three places; although the unexpected news of Chavez's death will bring international crude oil market prices Certain support, but subject to the United States launched a government spending reduction plan and other negative supply and demand levels, crude oil prices are limited upside.

The continued decline in the wholesale price of refined oil was affected by the expected reduction in domestic oil prices, and the domestic wholesale price of refined oil continued to decline.

According to tests conducted by several market institutions, after the National Development and Reform Commission raised the price of domestic refined oil products on February 25, the domestic wholesale price of gasoline and diesel dropped significantly: if Sinopec decided, since January 1, 2013, the price of diesel was lowered by 100 yuan/ Ton. In the market, some refined oil wholesalers have continued to lower prices in order to reduce their inventory, with an average daily decline of about RMB 10-20/t.

This has also led to increased profit margins for wholesale and retail prices of domestic refined oil products. For example, the gap between the wholesale and retail price of diesel in North China has widened to RMB 500-650/ton, providing room for retail sales of gas stations.

It is noteworthy that Zhang Ping, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said shortly before that he would consider shortening the 22-day price adjustment cycle and cancel the 4% rate of change. Some analysts pointed out that if the new mechanism can be implemented, the oil price adjustment may be conducted twice a month later, but the specific implementation time point remains to be seen. In 2012, the domestic refined oil price had a total of 8 adjustments, 4 up and 4 down.

It is understood that the continued decline in international oil prices has caused China's Taiwan to cut oil prices twice consecutively since February 25. Three consecutive falls in oil prices are just around the corner. At present, the mechanism of oil price changes in China’s Taiwan is adjusted once a week. Compared with mainland China, it is closer to international oil prices.