Review: GDP data boosted the rebound of thread technology

Disk reminder:

The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the GDP in the second quarter was 7.6%, which was in line with market expectations and had a certain supportive effect on the market.

Tips before the market: Greece's unemployment rate hit another record high, the international interest rate cuts emerged, Brazil, South Korea, Denmark cut interest rates, Denmark opened the era of negative bank interest rates; the European Central Bank said that if there is a need for interest rate cuts, the US employment data better than expected, overnight Europe and America The stock market closed lower. Crude oil, copper and other commodities reversed the downtrend.

Domestic macroeconomic data such as GDP in the second quarter and the first half of the year will be published today, which will have a significant impact on the intraday market and require close attention.

Fundamentally, major steel makers continued to lower their ex-factory prices yesterday. Shagang lowered 70 yuan/ton for construction steel. Baosteel reduced the sheet for 2 consecutive months. It remained unchanged for 6 consecutive months. Has a negative impact on the market.

Thread spot yesterday to maintain the decline, today's East China spot to stabilize the main spot, North China, South China continued to fall steadily 10-50 yuan yesterday RB1301 Gaokaidizou, weak shocks, price center of gravity continue to move down.

Today's operating strategy: RB1301 moves to 3960 in the 4045 trend, and the day's focus is on the effective breakthrough of 3900. The focus is on the impact of GDP data. Day 3950 can be tested against the air, and traders can speed up shipping or keep. Net short position.

RB1301 opened in the outer disk to 3920 today, opening, short selling continued to suppress, RB1301 shocked down, but then driven by the strong metal copper, RB1301 again from the low near 3900, 10 points after the release of GDP data, the stock market, the commodity market has a strong wave Pulled up, RB1301 followed slightly to the early high of 3925, but the weak fundamentals suppressed, RB1301 rebounded weak, and then maintain the trend of weak shocks, to close at 3922, compared with yesterday's settlement price rose 6 points or 0.15%, holding positions increased by 10,398 hands, Before the weekend and GDP data, the market appeared to be more cautious and trading was very light, with only 338,246 lots traded in early trading, a sharp drop from the previous two trading days.

GDP data in line with the expectations of the fundamentals may be a good stimulus, the impact on the thread will not be too much, it is estimated that the red down, the trend of low volatility, but pay attention to the weekend whether there is a follow-up stimulus policy introduced, below 3950 If there is no effective break below the 3900 support today, the position will be eased around 3900 to avoid the weekend risk. 4045 The trend of empty shorts continues to hold.

During the afternoon, RB1301 followed the market's overall rebound and rebound. Part of the bears evaded the risk taking away from the weekend. The RB1301 showed a technical rebound in the afternoon. However, it was suppressed by the 5th line and closed at 4041, up by 25 points or 0.64% from yesterday's settlement price. A large reduction of 37,686 lots, with a turnover of 630,962 lots, was relatively light and closed with the bare-bodied Yinxian under the shadow.

Concerned about whether or not favorable policies were introduced on the weekend, the RB1301 was short-term in the short-term, but if it continues to favor favorable stimulus, it may continue the technical rebound and focus on whether the 4050 resistance can break through. If it breaks, it will follow up more than one rebound.

Thread ** completed the conversion of the main contract this week, RB1301 opened up outside the gap and opened lower, out of unilateral decline, the dominant mill ex-factory price increase to further combat market confidence, short positions moved to the 1301 contract to suppress, RB1301 this week With 4045 jumped open and fell unilaterally, the technology rebounded from the stimulation of GDP data on Friday, with the lowest of 3896, closing at 3941, down 116 points or 2.86% from last week. The position increased by 350,000 lots, and the trading volume was up. Triple of the week, RB1301 weekly trend showed a short-term trend of Masukura Heavy volume decline, but near 3900 received strong support, failed to effectively break through for 3 consecutive days, under the support of macro data bullish, RB1301 short-term or continuation of the technical rebound trend , above the 4000 resistance level.

Zheshang strategy next week: RB1301 is held cautiously in the 4045 trend, short-term or technical rebound, short-term resistance or technical rebound, short-term resistance 3950, 4000, medium-term resistance 4050, short-term support 3900, medium-term support 3800, break more than 3950 short-term test, effectively fell below 3900 empty The single-follow-up, standing 4050 trend is more than a single holding.

Traders speed up shipments or maintain net short positions, standing firm 4050 to try to establish virtual inventory.

Message surface international:

1. The unemployment rate in Greece in April was 22.5%, a record high, which was revised to 22% in March. France's CPI monthly rate in June was flat with an annual rate of 1.9%. The monthly CPI rate, which excludes ** prices, was also flat, with an annual rate of 1.9%. The monthly rate of CPI rose slightly by 0.1% after the adjustment in June, and the annual rate rose by 2.0%. In the euro zone, 17 countries’ industrial production in May increased by 0.6% month-on-month, compared with the same period of last year, the euro zone’s industrial output fell by 2.8% in May.

2. The EU member state Denmark reduced the benchmark deposit interest rate from 0.05% to minus 0.2%. The era of global bank deposits with "negative interest rates" was opened by Europeans. A few days ago, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said at the European Parliament, “The interest rate cut has been wide open, there is room for interest rate cuts, and the European Central Bank is entirely likely to take further action based on changes in economic data.” It seems that the European Central Bank has resolved to The monetary policy control channel goes to the extreme.

3. In the week of July 2, the US money supply M2 increased by 43.2 billion U.S. dollars to 99.915 trillion U.S. dollars. During the week, the M1 money supply increased by 21.5 billion U.S. dollars to 2.2697 trillion U.S. dollars. The number of jobless claims received last week was better than the expected 375,000. The number of people in the previous week was 374,000. Better data support the fact that the labor market conditions have come out of mud and the U.S. economy has grown slowly. The US import price in June fell by 2.7% from the previous month and was lower than the expected decrease of 1.9%. In May, the import price dropped by 1.0%.

4. The U.S. government budget deficit in June reached nearly 60 billion U.S. dollars. The US federal government’s expenditure in June was US$320 billion, an increase of 9.2% over the same period of the previous year; revenue was US$260 billion, an increase of 4% over the same period of the previous year, a record high since June 2007. The U.S. government’s budget deficit for the first nine months of fiscal 2012 as of September 30 totaled US$904.2 billion, a decrease of US$67 billion from the same period last year. The US Congressional Budget Office expects the budget deficit for the current fiscal year to reach 1.17 trillion U.S. dollars, which is an improvement over the 1.30 trillion U.S. dollars in fiscal 2011, but it will continue to exceed 1 trillion U.S. dollars for the fourth consecutive year.

5. The Central Bank of Brazil cut the benchmark interest rate by half a basis point to 8%; the Bank of Korea lowered the interest rate by one quarter point to 3%. This is the first time that the Bank of Korea has cut interest rates in more than three years. However, the minutes of the June Fed announced by the Fed on July 11 showed that the Fed’s senior officials have obvious differences on whether to use monetary stimulus policies. Several members of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) believe that it is necessary to take further economic stimulus measures to boost the job market; other members said that only the U.S. economic growth outlook faces obvious risks or inflation remains below the target level. It is only when it is necessary to take further action.