According to the latest data released by Commodity Data Business Group, the commodity market in the third week (18th to 22nd) of March 2013 rose more or less. Among the 58 product categories tracked, 37.93% of the varieties rose, and 43.10% of the total. Variety of decline, average increase or decrease of -0.20%. The commodity price index BPI has been adjusted back to 966 points on March 22 from 971 on March 18th. Comparing the performance of the commodity market this week and the previous week, it is not difficult to find that this week's decline and decline have significantly contracted. Analyst Liu Xintian, the chief analyst of Business Services, analyzed that the reason for the deceleration in the market is that both raw materials and downstream terminals have imposed constraints on commodity fluctuations. Basic raw materials, such as crude oil, coal, and iron ore, all have limited declines (from 1-3). From a monthly perspective, the cumulative declines of several upstream raw material varieties are far less than those of other commodities.
Among them, crude oil WTI and iron ore prices are basically the same as New Year's Day (crude oil is 92 US dollars, iron ore is 939 yuan/ton), thermal coal only fell less than 2.5%; downstream terminals, most of the commodity decline is also less than industry The mid-chain species. The decline in basic raw materials and downstream terminals is weaker than the mid-stream of the industrial chain, which is a feature of this round of decline. Liu Xintian predicts that the deceleration may be temporary. Once the market finds a “leading†drop, it may be able to accelerate at any time.
According to a recent survey conducted by Business Club, more than 70% of commodity employees (spot traders, ** investors) have not lost confidence in the market outlook, and more than 80% of analysts (** analysts, business community spot analysts) We think that it is very likely that there will be a wave of commodities in April. There are mainly three main reasons for optimistic about the April market: First, April is a small season that includes traditional industries such as rubber and plastics, non-ferrous metals, etc., and the demand side has improved compared to February and March; second, a considerable proportion of the company's maintenance period. Ranked in April (such as Sinopec, PetroChina's LLDPE unit), supply pressure will be reduced; Third, many companies are currently struggling on the cost line, Baotuan pull up to become a "rescue" (the recent glass and other industries frequently burst (rising news), pull up or will burst out in April.
However, it is not ironic that the market appears in April, the business club thinks this probability is in 70%. It is worth noting that even if commodity prices rebounded in April, it cannot change the downtrend of the overall market. For the bulls, the situation in May and June is still very grim.
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